THE OAKS, RESEARCH COMPLETED & FIVE LIVE CHANCES FOR ANNA.
Yesterday when relaying my views on how the Epsom Derby will go on Saturday, I admitted to not having outsider Rebel Rocker in my memory box.Today, though, though not due to extensive research but simply by reading today's copy of The Racing Post, I am fully acquainted with his thus far short career. He won a Kempton Park maiden back in November and was second to Saxon Street in Epsom's Blue Riband Derby Trial. What I did not know, and should have known, is that he is a home-bred and his owner/breeder, Jennifer Dorey, lives locally to where I live. Imagine a home-bred, the only mare the breeder has, winning the Derby and who is regularly ridden out by former champion jumps jockey A.P.McCoy. That is the sort of story the Epsom Derby needs and deserves. If only. If only. If looking for a strand of hope it can be found in that he was running on in grand fashion in the Blue Riband and it might be imagined if the race was over the full Derby distance he might have won. At least now I know where my allegiance lies tomorrow.
That said, I remain with Pierre Bonnard, to be ridden by Christophe Soumillon, with Ryan Moore sticking with Benvenuto Cellini and Wayne Lordan on Action, which suggests Christmas Day and Ronan Whelan will be the pace-setter.
To add interest to today's Epsom Oaks, I have split the nine-runners into three teams of three and will be awarding points from 5 to 3,2,1. Team 1 is the 3 Ralph Beckett runners, K Sarra, A La Prochaine and On Message. Team 2 is obviously the 3 Aidan O'Brien runners, Amelia Earhart, Cameo and Sugar Island. Team 3 will be the three outliers, Legacy Link, Thundering on and Venetian Lace.
On occasions, it is a horse that finished third or fourth that can impress the observer more than the winner and K Sarra did just that whea strong finishing third in the Musidora at York in behind Legacy Link. I am not suggesting that at this stage of their 3-year-old careers the former is a better horse than the latter. I suspect not. I simply base my assessment on my opinion on what my eye witnessed at York. In an interview with Nick Luck last Saturday, although Beckett would not pick one of his over the other two, he did say that A La Prochaine was always going to run in the Oaks, suggesting to me that she is the one trained specifically for Epsom. Though that might only infer that the owner was calling the shots.
As is obvious, no Ballydoyle horse can be dismissed from any race and if anyone in racing has the prowess to straighten a curve it is Aidan O'Brien and in Amelia Earhart he has a kinky, curvy type, in need of both a hood and blinkers to prevent her from looking backwards, apparently. I believe there is more than a small chance that she might boil over in the parade ring, during the pointless parade, on the canter to the start or behind the starting stalls or when being loaded. Or she might be a pussy-cat. I just think gambling is a tricky enough entertainment without having to keep your fingers crossed that your horse behaves itself.
Without boring anyone with my thoughts on all of the nine-runners, my suggestion for the 1, 2,3, is thus: K Sarra to win from Cameo and Thundering On.
Tomorrow at Punchestown, and I bring this to your attention in case it gets missed in all the Derby Day excitement, Anna McGuinnes is honoured by Willie Mullins with 5-rides, all of which have the usual Mullins-like chances of winning. Perhaps she is the heir to Rachel Blackmore's crown. The evidence suggests Willie Mullins thinks she must have the potential to step into Blackmore's shoes, why else would he entrust her with five chances of riding five winners for a stable that can have 5 winners at one meeting without it being headline news. Good luck to her. Her big chance to impress has arrived.
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