THE EPSOM DERBY.

If you believe what is said by the majority of the racing media, coupled with the current state of the betting market, Benvenuto Cellini is a sure thing to win the 2026 running of the Epsom Derby. Yet when I look at the 14-declared runners, I see a very open, competitive race, made even more intriguing by the inclement weather and the prospect of soft under foot conditions.

After all the recognised trials were run, I formed the conclusion that Item had won the most competitive race and I believe him to be the best horse in the race, not Benvenuto Cellini. Of course, at this stage in their mental and physical development 3-year-old colts can be expected to change from geese into swans and if you take that into consideration you might as well throw away the form book and go for what your eyes will tell as the Derby field present themselves in the parade ring and as they canter down to the start. If all the investment in reinvigorating the Derby is successful, there should be more pazazz and greater anticipatory buzz around the place on Saturday and this kind of electric atmosphere can fry the nerves of some horses, while others seem able to concentrate on the game at hand.

Although I believe Item to be the best horse in the race, I formed the impression at York that it would be unlikely if he handled the descent and the cambers in the home straight. I may well be wrong; that will surprise no one. But not even Colin Keane will be able say with conviction that he will or will not act on the course.

The other unknown at the moment is whether Ryan Moore sticks with the favourite or jump saddles for one of Aidan's other three runners, thinking one of those will improve mightily for the soft ground. It may be unlikely, though it is equally quite possible. Ryan is a great thinker and he, and he alone, has all the facts, form and hands-on experience, at his finger-tips. I would not be at all surprised if he swapped to Pierre Bonnard who would not be going to Epsom if he had not come on leaps and bounds since his defeat to James J Braddock. I cannot envisage a situation where Moore would swap to Christmas Day or Action, though the latter, as long as he is not used as a pacemaker, has been my preference of the Ballydoyle four since York.

Alderman will not be winning, though Ancient Egypt might. Neither A Taste of Glory nor Balzac will be first past the post, though Bay of Brilliance might be. James J Braddock has to be respected, as must Maltese Cross.  Going into the race Poker has proved very poor value for his £4-million price-tag, though if an outsider is to reach the frame, it might be him. I should really look-up the form of Rebel Rocker as he is a mystery to me.

I am torn this way and that, averse as I naturally am to go with the favourite simply because better men and women than I have done so. I'll be honest, I do not want to witness Coolmore to win another classic and certainly do not want another Ballydoyle whitewash as though that would provide a headline for the national newspapers, it is not what the Epsom Derby needs this year. An outsider would make a better story. Rebel Rocker, for instance. Young female trainer working out of A.P. McCoy premises would be a gem. If, god forbid! Christmas Day were to take a tumble, in a hundred-years time, if such entertainments were still to exist, he might be a pub quiz question - When did Christmas Day last fall on Derby Day.

But this is not the Grand National of old. It is the Epsom Derby; romance does not live here. This is the day of the elites; this is the day when a 4-million quid horse can be laughed-off as well-named, if useless. My selectio, though, lies with a storyline I do not want to read. I believe Pierre Bonnard will win the Epsom Derby, with Action second, James J Braddock third and Bay of Brilliance fourth. Come Saturday, though, I may have changed my mind.