will baaeed win today?

​The other question still to be answered is how Baaeed, or any horse for that matter, can be beefed-up to be described as ‘the best in the world’? Baaeed is certainly the best miler in Europe, though unless he is pitted against the best miler in the U.S., Japan or Australia, it is not about fact but someone’s interpretation of his form and whatever rating is put next to his name.
He is about to step up in distance, which apparently, if he wins, will be the crowning of him ‘as best in the world’. It is possible, of course, that Vadeni, the recent Eclipse winner might have the beating of him if they were to meet over 1-mile 2-furlongs. Who can say until they meet? And with the age and gender allowance it is possible Nashwa night get the better of him over the same distance. We don’t know. It is all pure supposition. And as for him being the successor to Frankel …. Though, of course, as with Frankel, it is possible Baaeed has been running over the wrong distance for the past twelve months and will scintillate at York this afternoon. Incidentally, it is not Frankel that Baaeed attempts to succeed but Brigadier Gerard, the best flat horse of my lifetime and before anyone gets hot under the collar, the Brigadier is the only horse of my lifetime to have beaten, by three extending lengths, a horse comparable in class to himself, Mill Reef, a horse forever overlooked when lists of great racehorses are produced.
Baaeed is very good, make no mistake. He doesn’t though set the pulses racing. Well, not mine, anyway. When Frankel won the Juddmonte the hairs on the back of my neck stood up and flat horses rarely excite me to that extent. That day, I recognised the hype surrounding him to be fact. He won like a horse that could easily step up another two-furlongs, another six-furlongs, whereas when racing over a mile he looked capable of winning a July Cup or King’s Stand. Baaeed doesn’t look like he might win a sprint race, though on breeding he should stay 1-mile 4-furlongs or even further, though to attempt such a distance would stain his reputation with breeders, apparently. No, I don’t understand such thinking either. Sea The Stars won an Arc and it doesn’t bother breeders one jot.
And going back to Brigadier Gerard for a moment. His owners, the Hislops, I think it can be fairly said were not well-liked in their lifetimes, with Dick Hern particularly scathing about John Hislop’s wife, Jean. Yet they campaigned Brigadier Gerard not to protect an unbeaten run but to search out his limitations, which is why they stretched out his stamina by running in the King George & Queen Elizabeth at Ascot. If only all owners of great horses were as sportingly brave and not choose to protect their investment and think only of the covering shed.
I sort of hope Baaeed wins today. It would be the best result for the sport. And William Haggas is such an endearing chap that you hope the horse wins for him, as much as anything. And Maureen Hagges, presently recuperating from broken bones in her neck. But it’s Native Trail for me, though. He seems to be forgotten about, with Mishriff seen as the only danger to the favourite, a horse that is in the habit of coming out of the stalls with all the grace of the Sugar Plum Fairy. Think back to April and Native Trail was the second coming, the horse to anticipate for the rest of the season.
He has won a classic, even if it was the Irish 2,000 Guineas not as expected the English version. And now William Buick knows for certain that the horse gets every yard of 1-mile 2-furlongs, he can be more positive on him and ride a race to beat Baaeed for stamina. Defeat for Baaeed will not be career defining. In fact, a narrow defeat giving away the weight allowance might even enhance his reputation. Brigadier Gerard was beaten in the Juddmonte by Roberto, a poor Derby winner but a Derby winner nonetheless. In the Brigadier’s defence he came to York after his stamina-sapping win at Ascot and a slog before that in heavy ground in the Eclipse at Sandown and all connected with him were convinced, he wasn’t himself on the day.
To my mind, Native Trail is well worth an investment.
York, amazingly, has missed virtually all the rain that has been around this week. We had an inch and a half in two-days in North Devon, with other parts of the country having much more. No Trueshan, then, sadly. But good news for the Strad, obviously.