who wins the king george vi chase?

​Harry Cobden may be young but he’s man who knows his own mind. Paul Nicholls also knows his own mind and is even more likely choose right than Harry. Only a fool would bet against their advice. So, don’t be a fool and have loads of dosh on Clan Des Obeaux.
Fools, though, can get lucky. Remember that.
A good many years ago, the year Desert Orchid won his first King George, I walked part of the course at Kempton and was amazed how deep the horses’ hooves went into the ground. There were no divots to be seen, just holes the size of cereal bowls in the ground where the horses had galloped. Since the introduction of all-weather racing at Kempton ground conditions may have altered so I may be proved incorrect in my analysis but I believe there is a strong possibility that although proven on soft ground and right-hand configurations Cyrname may not be able to keep up his relentless gallop due to the energy-sapping, horseshoe-removing ground. Remember, heavy rainfall is predicted for Boxing Day, with the clerk of the course fearful of heavy ground for the second-day of the meeting.
The race is rather easy predict as Cyrname has only one way of running and none of the riders on his rivals will want him to poach too large an advantage. I don’t expect to see Robbie Power sitting too far off the pace on Lostintranslation and they like to be prominent with Aso, so Harry Cobden is unlikely to get the uncontested lead he has enjoyed in his last few runs.
I expect Tom Scudamore to sit last on Thistlecrack to watch developments. Kempton is Thistlecrack’s sort of course, flat and where the fences come to him in lines. I admit to wanting him to win, not that I am expecting him to win. His owners, though, have made the right choice as participation in the Long Walk Hurdle last weekend would have sapped all the strength and enthusiasm out of the old boy.
Footpad is the joker in the pack. Last season I called Willie Mullins all kinds of regrettable names for keeping him to the shorter distances. I thought Ruby would have known better and advised Willie to up the horse in trip. Well, come mid-afternoon tomorrow we will see who is the greatest fool. Me, undoubtedly. Even if Footpad is the one with the turn of foot to get by Cyrname after the last. At the prices currently available – 8, 9 and 10/1 – he should definitely not be overlooked.
So, to Clan Des Obeaux. I thought he looked magnificent at Down Royal, as if he had thrived over the summer months. He jumped beautifully and to my mind ran better first time out at Down Royal than he did in the Betfair at Haydock last season. He looked to me like a horse that had matured and improved as an athlete. My impression that day was that he would win a second King George and I am tempted to remain loyal to that impression.
One of my other ‘impression’ also leads me to Clan Des Obeaux. Harry Cobden is young; he has a star-studded career ahead of him and compared to Sam Twiston-Davies he has already achieved a high level of big race successes. For all his talent, Sam has not really rung the big bells to the extent he should have. Boxing Day may change all that. He is far too good to end his career without a clutch of major victories to his name and though he might like the name of his father on the winners’ roll of honour alongside his own I am sure it will be just as sweet winning on a horse trained by Paul Nicholls.
Lostintranslation will blow his Boxing Day opposition away come the Gold Cup but I feel inclined to exclude him from my 1,2,3. Clan Des Obeaux will win from Footpad and Cyrname.
In the other Grade 1’s on the card I expect Jarveys Plate to win the Kauto Star and Epanante to win an interesting but below standard Christmas Hurdle.
I have my doubts that Chepstow will survive the weather but if it does, I have a leaning towards Bennys King, with Elegant Escape and Now McGinty to follow him home. Expect no more than six to finish, that’s where the value is to be found.