who wins the king george.

​L’Homme Presse. Next question.
Occcasionally, very occasionally, difficult to win major races have an obvious looking winner in waiting. In my opinion, this year’s renewal of the King George VI Chase is such a race. Originally, as I did not think L’Homme Presse would run, I was convinced Frodon, especially at 16/1 and bigger, was the bet of the race, which he might still be, as an each-way chance. And as much as I would love Frodon to win his second King George, and again he is dismissed as an unlikely winner by the ‘experts’, logic tells me he will be unable to run the legs off the only horse in the race that might conceivably go on to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. This is very much a case of my head over-ruling my heart.
L’Homme Presse might be inconvenienced by the tight track and soft/heavy is very different ground at Kempton than it would be at Newbury or Cheltenham, for instance. Since it became an ‘all-weather’ track, with all the additional drainage involved, the ground may not be compatible to the day I walked the track (the year Desert Orchid won his first King George, if you need to know) when there was not so much divots as hock-deep holes down the back stretch. But all that aside, L’Homme Presse is far and away the most likely of the field to go on the ground and possess the stamina and class required to win the second most prodigious steeplechase in the British racing calendar.
Although Bravemansgame has won on soft ground at Kempton, the Kauto Star last season was far from a competitive affair, with Ahoy Senor looking ill-at-ease on such a tight circuit. And remember, Paul Nicholls withdraw Bravemansgame from his intended Cheltenham Festival race last season citing the soft ground as being unsuitable. There remains the possibility that he may take the same decision on Boxing Day.
Ahoy Senor is destined to win a big race, though his only win on soft ground was a maiden hurdle at Ayr. He will come good but it will be on a more galloping track like Cheltenham or Newbury. I wouldn’t rule him out as a Gold Cup horse, I do though rule him out as a King George winner. I would rather have seen him in the Welsh National. Remember Carvill’s Hill?
In the King George you should never rule out a horse trained by a Tizzard. Eldorado Allen could easily run into a place but it’s a stretch to think he has the class of his mighty predecessors, the late lamented Cue Card and Thistlecrack.
It has to be admitted that Envoi Allen has an impressive number of 1’s to his name, 15 if I still possess the ability to count passed 14. He has won on all types of ground and over every distance between 2-miles and 3. Although at times he does not look a natural jumper of steeplechase fences, he has only fallen once, the day his aura of invisibility hit the deck at Cheltenham. He is as equally easy to dismiss as it is to envisage him becoming a Gold Cup contender by winning a King George. Rachel Blackmore could not possibly add a King George to her amazingly impressive C.V., could she?
Let’s get one thing clear about Frodon. Contrary to what his trainer says about him, Frodon has won three times on heavy ground and has prevailed a further six-time when the word ‘soft’ has appeared in the ground description. Good ground is not the most important ingredient for him. He has also won 3-times around Kempton. And he is a much better stayer than he was once considered. He is not out of the reckoning this year, though at 10 his best days surely must be behind him. He remains though the best value in the race and predict he will follow L’Homme Presse home.
Hitman is the joker in the pack. He has never run over 3-miles, so nobody can say with certainty he will not stay. He has, though, won 3 of his 4 races on soft ground and won readily over 2-miles 5 at Haydock. I suspect Harry Cobden may have chosen poorly once more.
Millers Bank. Never say never, though I choose to on this occasion.
Royale Pagaille is trained by Venetia Williams, so anything is possible especially when the ground is anywhere close to boggy. Of the entire field, Royale Pagaille is the only one at his very best on soft-to-heavy ground and his trainer is adept at getting a horse fit to win first time out at the highest level and has winning form at Kempton, albeit a handicap where he was thrown in at the weights. He is not the class of his stable companion, though, is he?
L'Homme Presse will win, with Frodon and Eldorado Allen to follow him home.
Goshen will win the Long Walk. That’s my heart talking again, though no one could argue that the ground combined with the track will suit him better than any of his rivals.
I’m prepared to give Thyme Hill another chance in the Kauto Star and though I cannot see her winning, I do think Epatante will finish closer to Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle than she did in the Fighting Fifth.
And a long shot for a later race – Arizona Cardinal in the 3. 05.