WHAT WINS THE 2021 KING GEORGE?

​Sad being that I am, I’m writing this before any bird has chirped on this merry Christmas Day, when the owl, if it were not raining, would still be hunting. If you must have more detail, one of the cats woke me at the time of the morning I usually rise for work, a time when out of expediency, though poor cat husbandry, he is usually fed. I am not one who can return to the land of Nod once rudely awoken. I am thankful I didn’t step in my bare feet on the large rodent that I have just noticed in the bedroom doorway.
So, who wins the King George tomorrow? I got the race spectacularly and gloriously wrong last year and doubtless will do so again. But one must try for redemption, if only for something to do at this wretched time of day. 
As with most other people, I have a sneaking suspicion that Asterion Forlonge will come good at some point this season. What has to be said, though, is that he has no shred of form to suggest he can succeed at the highest level. He might have beaten Allaho last time but for falling but fall when still in with a chance is all he achieved. And as admirable as Melon is, he, too, consistently fails at Grade 1 level. The second that day Janidil is a dark horse that might improve through the grades this season. At Punchestown last season, over 2m 5-furlongs Asterion Forlonge beat Walk Away and Port Stanley by 14-lengths and 5, giving them plenty of weight. But that is a long way short of the form needed to win a King George. That said, he remains at the back of my mind as he might improve considerably for the step up in trip. And he is trained by the canniest trainer on all the lands of the world.
For some reason, and again the horse lacks the form to win a King George, the other Closutton raider, Tornado Flyer, grabs my attention as I have always considered him to be a stayer and though beaten a country mile over the trip in the Savills Chase last Christmas he was noted to have ‘kept on’. Doubtless he was ridden conservatively that day with a nod towards seeing if he stayed 3-miles. He certainly doesn’t seem to have the pace for shorter distances. At 20/1 plus, he is worth an each-way bet.
It would be foolish to disregard either of Nicky Henderson’s two runners. I am convinced Mister Fisher is better than his form figures and he got closer to Frodon at Sandown than anything that ran in last year’s King George. Chantry House looks class and if he can win this, he will become a leading Gold Cup contender, leaving Champ to stay hurdling. Looking class and being classy enough to win a competitive Grade 1 are fish of a different kind. I accept he won at Aintree, beating two classy individuals in Shan Blue and Fiddleronthehoof by 32 and 26-lengths, aided by the fall of his closest rival, and added to his Cheltenham Festival success should make him a few points shorter in the market than he is. I just wish he had a run in a competitive handicap before being thrown in at the deep-end. What’s in his favour is that he is a steady jumper but will his jumping hold up in what is certain to be a hot pace from flag fall?
I lost faith in Lostintranslation many moon ago, having once thought him a superstar in the making. Saint Calvados has not won over 3-miles and didn’t seem to get the trip last year, though he was the only horse capable of putting it up to Frodon, prestige in its self. As he is now trained by Paul Nicholls he can’t be written off and I suspect Gavin Sheehan will be tasked with holding back a little more this time around in hope preserving stamina.
That leaves me with the winner of the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup and the last three winners of the King George. Usually when there is a line-up of such distinguished horses one or more of them might be considered ‘over the hill’, yet Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux are at what is considered the peak age, 9, for a steeplechaser and Minella Indo is a year younger and to my mind, as predictable as it is, I think the winner will come from one of the three.
I watched a video last week presented by Megan Nicholls on the Ditcheat Boxing Day runners and there cannot be a steeplechaser on the planet that looks more spectacular than Clan Des Obeaux. He oozed well-being, with the added bonus of looking 100% fit. He had King George winner written in the deep shine of his coat and the look of eagles beaming from his eyes.
But will he win? Unless Tornado Flyer is there to mess-up Frodon, the race has a set plan to it. Frodon will make it a searching test and at various points Bryony will slow the pace and stack them up behind her to use Frodon’s amazing scope to eke a length off his rivals at each fence. I expect Cobden to have Clan Des Obeaux more forward than he was ridden last year, perhaps shadowing Frodon for much of the race. Minella Indo, in first time cheek-pieces will also be closer to the pace. If he isn’t, the cheek-pieces will have failed to galvanise him and Kempton will not have suited him.
As much as I, and I suspect the majority of the crowd, want Frodon and Bryony to defy the experts and win again, after seeing Clan Des Obeaux last week I cannot desert my intuition. And Cobden deserves to win one of the major chases after having to watch the Ditcheat second-jockey winning the all the plaudits recently. A one-two for Ditcheat, with Tornado Flyer running into third.
As befits a race run in memory of the immortal Kauto Star, the 3-mile novice chase could be the most informative of the season so far. It is a pity only 4 take part, though the two main protagonists, Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame, could be the nest two superstars of the sport. Again, I prefer the Nicholls’ runner, though dearly wanting Lucinda Russell to have a great horse on her hands.