the poorest tipster's worst-ever cheltenham. it must get better, mustn't it?

​Is Shishkin a naughty horse that spits the dummy out when he doesn’t get his own way? Is there an ailment that prevents him jumping his fences as accurately as in the past? Does he need 3-miles? Does he need blinkers or side-pieces? Has he taken against Cheltenham? Does he need a flat track? Questions. Questions. Questions.
My thoughts on his disappointing failure to win the Ryanair are thus: the bad mistake he made at the 3rd-last fence (?) was mighty and many a horse and jockey would have ended up on the floor. Great sit by Nico and, I believe, great courage from the horse to battle on from it. The major plus, I believe, Nicky Henderson will take from yesterday was the abundance of stamina Shishkin displayed for all to see to be only fourth jumping the last fence and yet to finish a running on second. The horse clearly needs 3-miles in my opinion and, if he has suffered no injury after yesterday’s efforts, Aintree will be the best place to prove him a King George horse for next season, if not a player in the 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The biggest shock yesterday was that Closutton failed to have a winner. Yes, Willie Mullins did not train a winner and Paul Townend also did not ride a winner. In fact, at no stage yesterday did a Closutton horse look like winning. Doubtless, Willie Mullins will go through the card today.
Ireland still, though, won 5-more Festival races. The rout continues.
And it started so well for the home-runners in the Golden Miller, sponsored by Turners - that, by the way, is how Festival races should be referred to, race-name first, sponsor second – with Paul Nicholl’s winning and Laura Morgan finishing second. I might have preferred it the other way round, though no one can deny Nicholls and Cobden deserved a Festival winner. I suspect Mighty Potter needs further and Appreciate It is not the monster they hoped he would be.
To use an Irish term, it is bollocks that the Irish are now winning all the handicaps as well as the Grade 1’s. Enough said.
In a letter published in the Racing Post several weeks ago, I argued my case for Honeysuckle running in the Champion Hurdle by reminding people that the form-book makes it plain that the de Bromhead horses always hit peak form at the Cheltenham Festival. Quite rightly, as it turned out, my argument was ignored by Henry, though my point has already been vindicated with 3 winners for Henry, with A Plus Tard and Minella Indo to come. Envoi Allen has now won 15-races, 4 Grade 1’s and 3 races at the Cheltenham Festival, a haul made-up by the Bumper, the Ballymore and now the Ryanair. Not bad for a horse generally considered ‘a bit of a disappointment’.
I felt so sorry for Jeremy Scott and his owners. Dashel Drasher is one of the sport’s great triers and even aged 10 he continues to run his heart out. He led over the last only to be collared close home and then had second-place taken off him in the stewards’ room for interference made far worse that it appeared by canny Davy Russell switching from outside Rex Dingle to inside.
Today: Gold Cup Day.
I am a man of opinions. Usually, though not always, my opinions stray way off target. But I have many an opinion and rarely waver. The Cheltenham Gold Cup this year has me in tangles. The only strong opinion I have is that Galopin Des Champs will not win as my instincts say he’ll not get up the hill and that Stattler is too much about stamina to win a Gold Cup. I can’t have Conflated as I doubt his will for a fight. Hewick, if we believe his trainer, will hate the soft ground and might be pulled out of the race. Noble Yeats might, though when did a Grand National winner win a Gold Cup?
Unbelievably, and going wholly against the theme of Irish domination, what instincts I have about the race lead me to the conclusion that the Cheltenham Gold Cup will either go to Scotland or England (or de Bromhead. I fear de Bromhead).
Since the Cotswold Chase, I have thought if the ground is soft and his jumping holds together, Ahoy Senor could win the race. And this was my fixed position until hearing Harry Cobden’s wide-eyed confidence that not only will Bravemansgame get every yard of the Gold Cup trip but he also has no fears about his ability to act on soft-ground. I am conflicted and a bit bamboozled.
And then there is the return to form of the de Bromhead horses and the memory of Minella Indo winning two-years ago on softish ground and A Plus Tard running away with the race on softish ground. And yet ….
Bravemansgame to win, though my heart hopes Ahoy Senor wins. It would be a boost for the sport if the Gold Cup goes up to Lucinda Russell.
Mullins will win the Triumph. But which horse? He runs seven. Zenta is my choice. Hunter’s Yarn for the County, another for Mullins. The Spa Hurdle, sponsored by Albert Bartlett, is a cracker, with a future Gold Cup horses no doubt lurking even amongst the also-rans. Three Card Brag is my tentative selection. In the Hunters Chase I am going out on a limb, not unusual for me, and suggest Rocky’s Howya, a horse on an upward curve, winning Irish point-to-points by long distances. I’m with Magic Daze in the Libertines Mares Chase, sponsored by Paddy Power, to bring down the Mullins hotpot. Though I am with Mullins in the Martin Pipe and the Noel Fehily Racing Syndicate with Haxo.
Long live the Cheltenham Festival.