the 2021 grand national. who will be victorious?

​As I have said previously, I’m always in favour of the underdog putting one over on the big guns. It is why the Grand National is such a leveller; why its referred to as a lottery. The country’s most successful tipsters, the men (it is to a man a male employment) fine-sieve the form, pinpointing the few that can win and eliminating the majority who by form or ratings have little or no hope, and are very often second-bested by their granny using the tried and tested method of selecting the Grand National winner, the pinprick. Or the ‘I always back number 22, or I like to bet on a grey so I see if it falls – well any method that doesn’t include burning the midnight oil.
Give me a Foinavon or Mon Mome over a hot favourite every time, even when my own money is on the second horse home. Next to every horse and jockey coming home safely, it is my favourite result, year in, year out.
This year, though, I have to admit, I have struggled to find favour with any of the big outsiders. My mixed-up and irrational thoughts on this year’s renewal have been compounded by Secret Reprieve not getting into the race and I will be as mad as a wet chicken if two horses get withdrawn overnight.
When the weights were published my three against the field were Secret Reprieve, who to my mind has Grand National winner stamped all over him, Milan Native and Minella Times. Now, perk up your ears, I have gone off Milan Native as I suspect he is a horse whose best form will be early in the season. Jamie Codd, though, is riding at a very low weight for him, which might be a tip in itself. I say ‘perk up your ears’ as I have form when it comes to rejecting horses that go on to win the Grand National. In 2016 (?) I reduced by degree after degree the possible winners down to 4 and placed my bets on 3, one to win, two to be placed, rejecting, with a heavy heart as in nearly all categories he looked booked for at least for a place, the category lacking was the fact he had never won a chase, Rule The World. So, Milan Native is worth remembering.
There is also the Rachael factor to take into consideration with Minella Times. The horse has a lot to recommend him: 10st 3Ibs is a nice weight for a horse that has never won a race anywhere near the distance of any ‘National’; he is eight-years old and seemingly has been trained all season for this one test. But, and this is as daft a reason for not backing him as backing a horse simply because your sister once dated a Sub Lieutenant or a block who always wore a cloth cap – didn’t the jockey use up all her luck at Cheltenham. Be minded, until Thursday she hadn’t ridden a winner since the Festival and Henry de Bromhead’s horses are running like hairy dogs at the minute. 
The downside of running the race at 5.15 pm is that no matter how much good-to-soft there is come the first race at 1.45, you cannot be certain how much the ground will dry out through the afternoon. There is rain forecast for the Liverpool area at around 5 or 6 o’clock and the winning jockey may have wet silks as he or she is led into the winners’ enclosure, so it might be foolhardy to reject soft-ground specialists. 
With this in mind, my thoughts are turning to the old adage ‘back the best horse in the race’ and the best horse in the race by a country mile is Bristol de Mai. I am from Bristol, Daryl Jacob is one of my favourite jockeys and he did me a huge favour when he got Neptune Collonge up in the final stride in 2012. I also watched a video of him being schooled over ‘Aintree-type’ fences and he looked a million-dollars, as bright as a button and pin-sharp.
If you could convince me Yala Enki will not attempt to take one of the fences home with him, and I keep remembering how he tried to do just that at Taunton earlier and the season, though I am dismissing his fall in the Becher as I think that was down to jockey error (when do you ever see Bryony give a horse a kick into the first fence?) I could fancy his chances as he will certainly get every yard of the trip.
Vieux Lion Rouge will jump round (he is the record-holder when it comes to Grand National fences successfully jumped) and the better ground might allow him to get the trip and perhaps run on into a place. I think Canelo is not a forlorn hope and the same can be said of Discorama, Magic of Light and Takingrisks. And Alpha Des Obeaux showed a bit of sparkle in the Cross Country at the Festival, enough for Giggingstown to withdraw him from the sales ring last week. And if I were to recommend an outsider, and if I were to have a bet, which for the first time in my living memory I will not be due to the government ban on betting shops, it would be Double Shuffle.
So, after much reflection and changes of mind, with no guidance from the form-book, my advice is thus: Bristol de Mai to win, with each-way selections being Double Shuffle and Minella Times.