Since taking out an on-line subscription to the Racing Post – have now retired and can now class myself as even poorer and have taken the dark road to reading from a monitor. Incidentally, I miss not having the paper physically in my hand. Needs must, though. – they seem to have taken offence at me ignoring the incredible data-base I now have at my disposal. Again, incidentally, while on the subject of on-line subscription. Perhaps I should have started with this warning. Unprofessional? Doubtless.
For your money the Racing Post offer not only subscription to the Racing Post but also the Irish Racing Post, which, I warn you, is identical to the British version. You do, though, get the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, which for the bettor and point-to-point enthusiast is a bonus. The newsletters, though, are just a rehash of what you have already read in Racing Post. That said: I continue to love the Racing Post. Love it. Love it. Love it. Back to the data base. Having now perused this incredible feature, I have discovered some statistical quirks. Be warned, though as Disraeli famously said, though quoting from Mark Twain’s autobiography, I believe: there are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics. Just for balance, the saintly Florence Nightingale wrote: To understand God’s thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of his purpose. Brian Hughes may be champion jockey and leading the jockeys title race again this season but taking my information from the top 100, statistically percentage-wise he is far from the top of the list. While Hughes has a 20% strike rate, Harry Cobden has 28%, Paddy Brennan 27%, Nico de Boinville 25%, Luca Morgan 21%, John England 21%, Charlotte Jones 21% with Ned Fox also on 21%. It is strike-rate on favourites, though, where Hughes is bettered the most, surprisingly. I began by listing jockeys with a better strike rate than the 34% strike-rate of our champion jockey but there were too many, so I switched to those jockeys who either equals Cobden’s 50% or better it. Tom Cannon has a 50% strike rate on favourites, as does Richard Patrick, Charlotte Jones and Stephen Mulqueen. Jack Hogan is on 51%. Patrick Wadge on 53%. Bryan Carver on 54%. Harry Kimber and Ciaran Gethins are on 56%. Bryony Frost and Bridget Andrews on 57%. Connor Brace and Emma Smith-Chaston on 58%. Though the winner of the strike-rate on favourites is the 100-1 outsider Mark Goldstein, presently side-lined through injury. There is an outlier with 100% and that is Connor Rabbitt, though one win from one winning favourite cannot be allowed to count. Now for the statistic that proves either Disraeli or Nightingale’s quote as admissible as evidence as proof of your theory: of the seven jockeys in the first list one in seven is female. Of the 14 jockeys in the second category, 4 are female. Though my record when conducting research is far from dependable, the fact that only one jockey other than Harry Cobden is in both categories is Charlotte Jones, a jockey who in the main only rides for one stable, I put forward her name as a jockey that is being deplorably overlooked when owners and trainers are in search of a good conditional. Of course, in statistical analysis it could be concluded that when Dan Skelton has a favourite in a big handicap he might want to put up his sister-in-law (56%) rather than his brother (37%), though I suspect this statistical fact falls into the lies, damned lies, etc category. Though Bridget did get the better of Davy Russell in the County Hurdle, a result that resulted, perhaps, in Russell thinking seriously about going back into retirement. What this quick brush with statistical analysis does suggest is that booking a top jockey on a favourite does not necessarily bring about victory, though it can be argued that jockeys riding in the big handicaps will generally always be the top jockeys and thus if there are sixteen of them, fifteen will be on losers are that will skew the statistics. But it also suggests that the lesser jockeys when given the opportunity of riding favourites in races are perhaps more motivated to get the job done as their career trajectory depends on proving to their employers that they are have the race-craft to be given further opportunities. It is also evidence that Jones, Frost, Andrews and Smith-Chaston should be availed-of better opportunities as they are already proving that they can get the job done.
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