shishkin was a good boy; faith is restored.

​Look, when I give a race a lot of thought, I am as poor a tipster as you’ll find in any betting shop or on-line forum. When I go big, metaphorically, you must understand I lack the courage to actually stake real money on my ‘judgement’, it is the result of an instinctual thought. When A Plus Tard won the Betfair a few seasons ago, as he jumped the last the phrase ‘this will win the Gold Cup’ sprung front and central to my thoughts. And so it came to pass.
Now, here it is, when Shishkin won at Aintree last season, reining in Ahoy Senor, who I was shouting to get home in front, the race ended with a similar phrase flashing across my mind. ‘This could win the Gold Cup’, to be precise. Galopin Des Champs winning at Leopardstown with total ease has, I admit, muddied the waters as I thought him as impressive a big race winner as we have seen for many a long day.
All the while when Nicky Henderson was campaigning Shishkin over 2-miles, my instincts were to up him in trip as I believed I was looking at a stayer, not a potential 2-mile champion chaser. At Newbury in the Denman Chase, Shishkin won by out-staying his rivals. The further he went, the further he was going to win by. I was equally impressed by the faith both Nico de Boinville and Nicky Henderson expressed in Shishkin’s ability to stay the Gold Cup distance. Of course, we will get the same nonsense all trainers and jockey spew if their horse comes a close second in a race, that their horse didn’t quite stay the distance, when the rest of the field have trailed in twenty-lengths or more in arrears. As David Elsworth replied to journalists suggesting Barnbrook Again didn’t stay 3-milies after finishing second in the King George. ‘He stayed better than those he beat’. Galopin Des Champs may prove at Cheltenham he is a stronger stayer than Shishkin but defeat will not automatically prove that Shishkin is not a genuine Gold Cup horse. Some days one horse will prove stronger than another. That does not equate to on another occasion the result will not be reversed.
What I do find strange, and, yes the case of One Man shoots holes in my opinion – a horse who won a Hennessey Gold Cup, admittedly off a low handicap mark, as a young horse and then went on several years later to win the Champion 2-mile chase, after somehow having his undoubted stamina replaced by raw speed – is how Protekterat can finish a close and staying on third two-season ago in a Gold Cup and yet now the experts are thinking him a Ryanair horse. Yes, he was disappointing in the Betfair Chase this season, though as horses get older, they often need more work to get them truly fit than they did when younger, yet in the handicap at Cheltenham and the Lingfield race, and again in the Denman, he was to be seen running-on to good effect. Rather like Frodon, if he learned to preserve his energy in the early stages of a race and not pull at the reins, he might prove more effective in the business part of the race, a problem which would still be a problem if they dropped him in distance. Over-enthusiasm in a horse is every bit as much a problem-to-be-solved as the horse reluctant to give his all.
Another aspect of trainer/jockey logic that baffles me was displayed by Alan King after the splendid sight of Edwardstown jumping his rivals into submission in the Game Spirit. Allowing his horse to bowl along in front obviously pleased the horse, with jockey and horse in almost total harmony for the majority of the race. So why suggest they might not employ the same tactics at Cheltenham in the 2-mile Champion Chase? Doing what they did at Newbury would be the best tactic to find a chink in El Fabiolo’s jumping, I suggest. And Jonbon, of that matter. Edwardstown is the best jumper of the three most likely candidates for the race, so why would you not make use of that superpower?
As when it takes an age to get a horse loaded into the stalls, the length of time it takes to re-shoe a horse at the start of a jumps race, must impact negatively on all the other runners, something demonstrated quite clearly by Harry Cobden’s mount getting very stirred-up at the start of the Betfair Hurdle and then running deplorably. I do wonder how the form of races impacted by delays works out later on in the season? Perhaps there should be a debate around a maximum time delay before the misbehaving horse is automatically withdrawn by the starter.