I sort of knew Shaquille wouldn’t win as soon as he left the stalls in the non-tardy manner of an ordinary racehorse. And though there was little James Doyle could have done about where he ended up, making the running on a horse whose usual method of winning races is coming from last to first, it sealed the deal for me, especially as he looked beaten at halfway. Shaquille is a young horse; he’s raw, immature and next year might prove his year of world dominance. Perhaps something physical will come to light to explain his flop in form or the malaise that is affecting the Camacho runners recently lies more heavily on their star than anyone imagined or veterinary tests highlighted. I hope a minor issue arises in the next few days as Shaquille was set to become flat racing’s version of the young Kauto Star. With Kauto he had our hearts in our mouths as he approached the final fence; with Shaquille the heart in mouth moment is when the stalls open. Perhaps the Camacho stable have over-analysed and ‘barnpots’ are ‘barnpots for a reason?
To leave my total disrespect for ratings, official or otherwise, for a moment. I am sure the Haydock stewards asked Julie Camacho for an explanation for Shaquille’s poor show, he was a hot favourite after-all. Did the Leopardstown stewards ask Aidan O’Brien for an explanation as to how Auguste Rodin could run so appallingly in the King George and Queen Elizabeth at Ascot and then win a thrilling battle in the Irish Champion Stakes, reversing the form with his stable-mate Luxemburg and King of Steel by a distance of several furlongs. There was obviously no fowl-play and no one should suggest otherwise but a detailed analysis of what made the difference would be appreciated by us all. If the cross-noseband is the answer, a piece of kit which is more of a brake than an accelerator, then it puts into my mind that the horse has a breathing issue, a fact Coolmore would like to keep under wraps. One final point on the Irish Champion Stakes. Wasn’t it polite of the non-O’Brien jockeys to allow Aidan’s horses to have the run of the race? No one thought to get between them or that the Ballydoyle team tactic was to force the opposition to go wide into the straight so that Moore and Heffernan could get first run on them. And though I am loathed to criticise Holly but she gave Nashwa a mountain to climb to achieve third-place, when sitting closer to the pace might have achieved first-place. Was the expectation that the O’Brien horses would come back to her? Aidan maybe a racing genius but that is no reason for jockeys to pay him homage with gifts of many lengths during a race. I am not one for research as life is too short for accruing facts on a subject that has no actual science about it. I am all for instinct and gut-feeling. It’s got me where I am at 6.03 on a Sunday morning. Yesterday, as I thought it proved my point, I copied Racing Post facts and figures on official ratings given to Ballydoyle 2-year-olds at the end of their seasons. The three top Aidan 2-year-olds by an official rating of 125 are Johannesburg, Holy Roman Empire and Air Force Blue, with the expectation that one of City of Troy, Henry Longfellow, Diego Velezquez, River Tiber or the un-identified and yet to run colt Seamie Heffernan claims to be better than all four, will exceed 125 by the end of the season. To the amazement of nobody, Aidan has had over 20 2-year-olds rated above 120, the greater majority of which proved to be ‘disappointing’, plain slow or untrustworthy. St.Nicholas Abbey (123) was a good old stick who served Ballydoyle with distinction over many seasons. Hawkwing (121) was top-class as a 3-year-old, as was Rock of Gibraltar (121). George Washington, though, unusually for a Ballydoyle horse, a bit temperamental (121) strut his stuff to good effect, with Churchill (120), perhaps the best of all of the above. How many informed journalists had ante-post bets on the likes of Fasliyev (123) for the Guineas or Derby? Or Tendulka (121), Landseer (121) or Second Empire (120), though I have it in the back of my mind the latter won an overseas Derby (?) or Minardi (2000) or Kingsbarn (120)? And did any of them feel shame for advising punters to lump on, for example, Air Force Blue for the Guineas? Coolmore, as sporting as the ‘boys’ are, is a stallion-making machine and the likes of Ten Sovereigns or Little Brown Bear, with racecourse achievement of ratings 120 and 121 respectively, can be sold as stallions to studs around the world on the back of one solid victory in a Group 1 as a 2-year-old. I am firmly of the believe that a) ratings, official or otherwise, are as wasted an exercise as a learned professor casting a brief look at a kindergarten class and deciding which of the children will lead fulfilled and successful lives and those who will turn out to be replicas of me, and b) that far too much emphasis is placed on 2-year-old races and that cutting by half the number of opportunities for colts and fillies to achieve a rating that in later life they cannot possibly equal would allow greater resources to go to races for mature horses and would perhaps stem the flow of horses sold abroad as their rating is too high for handicaps but who lack the scope to win Group races. 2-year-olds have their future ahead of them; 3-year-olds on the flat are in a sink or swim scenario. In the days when the majority of horses running on the flat were owner/bred, the need for 2-year-old races was of less importance than in the modern era when breeders, in the main, breed to sell at public auction. In many ways, flat racing only exists for the breeding of thoroughbreds. It is why speed dominates as breeders achieve a quicker financial return for a sprint-bred early 2-year-old as owners can achieve a quicker return for their financial outlay as they do not have to wait so long to see their purchase on the racecourse. I honestly believe flat racing is going to hell on a handcart. Or moving inexorably toward the U.S. racing model. And no one can deny that U.S. racing is undoubtedly going to hell on a handcart. Apart from breeders, does anyone want British racing to resemble the U.S.?
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