self-confidence and statistics.

​I am not someone who obsesses about having the facts all in a neat row. This blog is based on my opinions and ideas and I accept I get my opinions and ideas in a tangle on occasion. In ordinary life, we all make mistakes, misspeak and commit errors of judgement. Although by definition of public access this blog goes can be read by someone living on any of the continents, I am pretty sure only the very few ever stumble upon this site.
‘Horseracingmatters’ exists for the sole benefit of my mental health. I have lived for horse racing all my adult life, which is over fifty-years, and as a kid horse racing found favour over football and all other more normal activities for someone growing up on a Bristol housing estate. That said, my mental health wasn’t really mature enough to manage a career in the racing industry, a regret that lingers to this day. If I can write about the sport, I can content myself with a life not well lived. I am seventy next April, so nothing much in my life will change for the better.
Last week, as much because of the lazy streak that I must always fight against, I thought I knew my subject to the point I had no need to check my facts. And though the point I was in want of making was correct, I failed to get all of my facts into a neat row. No one was hurt by my mistake and the planet was not tilted off its axis because of it. Yet I was internally humiliated to make such a gaff, both on this site and in a letter I sent to the Racing Post intended for publication in their letters column. Thankfully, they recognised the falsity of my opinion and figuratively threw the letter in the bin.
(For a period of twelve-months, a few years ago, I wrote a column, as an unpaid contributor, for ‘Racing Ahead’ magazine. For eleven months my efforts were well-received. In what I chose to be my last contribution to the magazine, though, I made a similar gaff, referring to who I believe is the best t.v. commentator the sport has ever had as Andrew Hoiles. It was pointed out by the boss to the editor who also did not pick-up on the error, who then pointed it out to me. I chose to slink away, never to be seen again, my confidence in tatters! I also considered, given how well my pieces were received, apparently, that it was about time the magazine started to pay me. Lost my arguing position after naming Richard, Andrew!)
The point is, though, the gaff did rock my confidence to the point I vowed not to attempt to have a letter published in the Racing Post every again. That vow will wilt over time but it highlighted to me how easily it must be for a sportsman to lose confidence when an open goal is missed, a three-inch putt goes wide or you lose when all the evidence suggests you should have won. It tells its own tale when this is possibly the third-time I have written about this topic in little over a week. Thank the heavens I have no editor to bawl me out over my incompetence. 

To get my facts in a neat row, I have just taken advantage of my ultimate subscription to the Racing Post to access their data-base, which I hope is up-to-date. As of today 22/08/2023, the following are the ten most successful jockeys riding on the flat in 2023.
1. Rossa Ryan 122 wins from 672-rides, success rate of 18%
2. Oisin Murphy 109 from 633-rides, at a rate of 17%
3. William Buick 101 from 501 rides, 20%
4. Hollie Doyle 88 from 543 rides, 16%
5. Daniel Muscott 87 from 563 rides, 15%
6. Billy Loughnane 81 from 472 rides, 17%
7. Tom Marquand 79 from 545, 14%
8. Kevin Stott 78 from 506 rides, 15%
9. Robert Havlin 76 from 383 rides, 20%
Tenth of this list is David Probert 76 from 633 rides, 12%, with only Rossa Ryan obtaining more rides since January 1st.
Percentage-wise, the leading jockeys are, and no surprise here, Ryan Moore with 44 wins from 191 rides at a percentage of 23% and Frankie Dettori with 22 wins from 98 rides at a success rate of 22%.
The above table is fuel for my dislike of the jockeys championship being determined by two arbitrary dates after the start of the flat season and before it officially ends, all because Qipco and the B.H.A. want to give ‘Champions’ Day’ greater significance than a creamy bun-fight for the rich and successful of the sport. Who can ever remember the horse that was Qipco champion sprinter in 2021 or the champion middle-distance horse of 2020? William Buick would always be a rightful champion if the title was determined on skill and personality alone, yet dedication and hard endeavour should also be determining factors in where the title lands. 
In a sport so nuanced that anyone coming to the sport from outside its horsiness that a college degree could be designed around the varied aspects of the industry as a whole, someone thought to confuse the narrative to a greater extent by awarding championship titles to jockeys that invariably have not won the most races during the year in which the record books show them as ‘champion’. If I was Luke Morris, I would be livid!
The two stand-outs in the above table are Rossa Ryan and Robert Havlin, the former for his consistency throughout the year and the latter for achieving a 20% strike rate from only 383 rides. Once upon a time Hollie Doyle would have been a stand-out but she is no longer a female jockey but simply one of our best jockeys.
If I could change one rule of football it would be the foul-throw. In flat racing, in a heartbeat I would change the foul-throw that is the determination of the jockeys’ title back to the days when workaday jockeys like Seb Sanders could lift the trophy through hard work as well as skill in the saddle.