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RATINGS - DON'T YOU LOVE 'UM!

2/20/2019

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​Don’t get me wrong, I was as impressed by Cyrname’s 17-length romp at Ascot as the next man, whoever he is and whatever he is doing in my study (or spare room as my significant other-half demeans my work-space). It is the official rating the win supposedly deserved that sticks in my throat.
Let’s not beat about the bush, Cyrname is a good, young improving chaser who if he were more ambidextrous would waltz away with the Ryanair, all things being equal, that is. But if God forbid Cyrname was not to race again, if Waiting Patiently, as is perfectly possible, it was after-all his first proper run for 12-months, was not 100% fit and with Politologue reportedly in need of another wind-operation, and who knows if the others were at their best and not suffering from a disturbed night’s sleep or were subject to a moody-fit, Cyrname’s official rating will be the rating he will always be known-for. His rating, as it stands, makes him a better horse than the current, unbeaten over fences, 2-mile Champion Chaser, Altior. Which doesn’t feel quite right, does it?
I am not suggesting a rating of 181 is within the realms of madness; only time will tell. But it is mathematical guesswork. Official opinion based on one glorious performance.
I cannot get out of my head the rating given to Master Minded after he romped to the easiest victory the 2-mile Champion Chase is yet to provide. It was a victory that in official terms made Master Minded one of the best chasers since the beginning of time. Yet never again was he in any way as impressive as that wow-factor day at the Festival.
As you might be aware, I am not a fan of ratings. At the end of a horse’s career, with a whole breadth of races to compare, contrast and evaluate, I am prepared to accept that a rating could be applied to individual horses, with every horse finding its place in the pantheon of form. But to hike a horse up the handicap based on one run, or worse to do the same with a horse that hasn’t gone near a horsebox since finishing second or third to the same horse in a previous race, is a jobsworth exercise verging on downright unfairness.
It is my view that a horse should not be reassessed after one run but after three, with a median rating applied – up four lbs, for example, for the first run, down 1lb for the second, down 3 for the third run. Yes, this will allow some horses to stay ahead of the handicapper, but also it will allow other horses some redress from the handicapper in the form of a lowering of its mark.
If you think this will aid trainers who want to fiddle the system then you might be right. But with all the aids stewards now have at their disposal to expose the wrong-doers I would suggest that the status-quo will remain very much the same, though of course some horses will win a race easily and be kept back to run in a heritage handicap later in the season from the same lenient rating. Not that trainers don’t employ the same tactic already!
On another front, it must be disheartening for an owner to come down from the joy of winning a race to be told by his or her trainer that it will hard to win another race with their horse as its rating will now soar beyond its ability. At least my system will allow the horse two more chances to win a race, even if its rating will soar even higher if it should win three handicaps on the bounce. But there are winners and losers with the present system as there will be if my radical and bright idea were to become rule and regulation.
Another problem I have with the present system of rating horses is that handicappers seemingly do not factor in ground, course or distance. Is Cyrname worthy of his high rating over all distances, on any course and on any ground. He can’t be worth 181 at Cheltenham as his connections don’t fancy him for the Ryanair and he couldn’t be worth 181 on fast ground or perhaps heavy. Nor if he ran over 3-miles plus as there is no form to access him over that sort of trip. All that can be fairly said is that at Ascot on good-to-soft ground over 2-miles 4-furlongs Cyrname is a 181 rated chaser, as long as all the horses he beat ran to their best ability, which in the case of Politologue is clearly not so.
I rest my case.
Damned exciting horse though, isn’t he?
 
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