randox grand national. april 10th. the weights.

​Sad so-and-so that I am, the publication of the Grand National weights is rather a highlight of my insubstantial existence, though not on a par with publication of the initial entries. That always gets my juices racing. These days there are few surprises from the handicapper, though that will not deter Michael and Eddie O’Leary giving out plenty on the ‘cruel and unfair mark he has imposed on Tiger Roll’. And for the next few weeks there will inevitably be a saga of ‘he won’t run, no way. Well, he might. He’s 60-40 likely to run. To something akin to their doing us a favour by giving him a shot at becoming the only horse to win three Grand Nationals in succession.’ Oh, they keep writing that Tiger Roll will be attempting, given he lines up, to emulate Red Rum’s achievement. He will not be. He’ll be surpassing Red Rum if he wins on April 10th. It took Red Rum fives attempts to win three Grand Nationals. Though Tiger Roll’s three will remain inferior to Red Rum’s three wins and two seconds, especially given the weights he carried. 12-st, 12-st, 11-10, 11-8.
Another thing: am I alone in thinking it madness that an Irish Grand National winner, Burrows Saint, has to qualify for the race as he hasn’t run in a chase this season, yet the novicey Battleoverdoyen does not? With the same applying to Anibale Fly, a horse who has jumped round in the Grand National on the last two occasions the race was run, finishing fourth and fifth.
To return to Tiger Roll: I have some sympathy with the O’Leary brothers. I appreciate the handicapper has to form the handicap to entice as many class horses to run; that said, can anyone put their hand on their heart and swear that Tiger Roll is within a pound in ability to Bristol de Mai and Santini?
Not that the O’Leary boys can claim to have the worst handicapped horse in the race as that must fall to Easysland who must be a Gold Cup horse to be given 11st 10lbs, the same as Bristol De Mai and Santini.
If I could dream a winner to become reality it would be Vieux Lion Rouge, the horse that has jumped more Aintree fences than any horse in the history of the Grand National. He won’t win, of course. He is a stayer that just doesn’t stay far enough. But I hope he jumps round again.
To my mind the most leniently handicapped horse and my initial selection for the race is Secret Reprieve. 10st 1 is a featherweight for a horse with so much potential and though he’ll need soft underfoot conditions, I can’t see him being far away at the winning post. Right trainer, right jockey, right owners, a combination that deserve a Grand National winner.
An Irish horse that has taken my eye recently is Minella Times. Again, 10st 3 is no weight for a horse that seems to be coming to himself. Milan Native is another Irish trained horse that attracts me as a possible Aintree type.
It is said that the best Grand National trial is the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I disagree. The best trial for Aintree is the Welsh National and this year’s race will, I believe, provide the winner. Yet the best performance in the race this year was definitely the third-place finish by Yala Enki, giving the winner 25lbs. Trouble is I can’t see him jumping round. Not because he fell on his head at the first in the Becher Chase but simply because when he gets a fence wrong, as at Taunton recently, he doesn’t do it by halves. I would have liked him to a few pounds less than 11st 3lbs, not that weight concerns me with him, but if he takes to the place, he will still be galloping jumping the last. And that is all you can hope for if he is carrying your ten-quid each-way, the only way to back him. It would be sheer madness to back him to win.
Mind you, anything I write here can be forgotten about if Santini runs. If there is such a beast as an Aintree horse, it is Santini. If he runs, he wins. Wouldn’t be able to see past him.
But as of February 17th, my three against the field would be: Secret Reprieve, Minella Times and Milan Native. My greatest hope, though, is that there will be spectators, if only 50% of full attendance. In reality, the best we can expect is that owners will be allowed to attend. Though if I were in charge of such decisions, I would put it to government that it might make for a useful experiment to have an attendance of 20,000, or some such number, to see what transmission occurs during the following weeks. If you are to test and track, why not follow those who attend Aintree. It would be a mark to the public that the government is following the science. Which it isn’t, by the way.