oh joy - the grand national weights.

​The revealing of the Grand National weights always used to be, for me, if no one else, the second – the first being publication of the entries - highlight on the road to the latest glorious running of the great race. Less so now, mainly, I suspect, as there are few surprises, with horses allotted weight close to or the same as their official ratings. I would imagine this year, as long as Any Second Now remains sound in wind and limb, the weights will not rise and horses will carry the weight published in today’s Racing Post. Which will be no favour to my lively outsider Gin On Lime on 10st 4Ib and currently 66/1 and longer. I doubt if any horse below Gin On Lime will face the starter.
It would surprise me if Conflated lines up, nor Envoi Allen, Royale Pagaille (I would fancy him if he did run) Fury Road or Ashtown Lad. My biggest fear is that Garth Broom (of Brocade Racing) will suffer a fit of collywobbles and text David Pipe to take his horse out of the Grand National. Until his last run, over hurdles at Sandown, I really fancied Remastered and 10st 10 seems a reasonable weight, receiving enough from the better-class horses to equalise the gulf between them and only giving a few pounds to the few lively outsiders lurking close toward the bottom of the race-card.
I would like Capodanno to a) not run in the Gold Cup and b) to have another run somewhere to make sure he has built on his good effort behind Janidil at Gowran recently. He is the horse at the top of the weights I respect the most.
In my opinion The Big Dog is overly burdened with 11st 5, the same weight as Capodanno. The same weight as a potential Gold Cup winner? Really! He will stay and until he fell at Leopardstown I would give him an outstanding chance of running a place. Now, though, I have gone off his chances, a snap decision that if personal Aintree history is anything to go by will come back to bite me on the backside.
As I write, my leading fancy is Lifetime Ambition, a horse trained all season with the Grand National in mind. 11st 3 seems a fair weight, receiving 9Ib from Any Second Now and 8Ib from Noble Yeats. At 8 he is the right age for a modern Grand National.
The second Mullins horse I like is the 2-season novice Gaillard Du Mesnil. You would put your mother-in-law’s prime burial spot on him staying the trip and taking to the fences and if Paul Townend passes him over – one would expect Mark Walsh to be back riding in time for Capodanno – I will forever doubt his ability to separate white from black.
There is a dull light in the back of my head drawing my attention to Ga Law. I had given him no consideration until I read today that he is an intended runner as I was under the belief that his trainer had said that they were minding him this season with next season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup as a long-term target. I still doubt he will run; though, of course, Emmett Mullins has changed trainers mindset after winning the race last year with a 7-year-old novice.
The Big Breakaway is on the same mark as Remastered and I like him for the reasons I favour Remastered, though being 2-years younger he might just have the edge.
I thought Happygolucky ran a monumental race in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, beaten not far by L’Homme Presse and Into Overdrive, giving the second 13Ibs, on his first run for two-seasons. He disappointed next time out at Cheltenham, though we might put that reversal down to the dreaded ‘bounce factor’. I have had the feeling for two-seasons now that Kim Bailey has another major race heading towards him. This might be it.
Never discount a McCain lively outsider come Aintree and in Minella Trump he might yet pull a rabbit from out of the McCain family bag of wonders. He might need good ground to play a part, though on the other side of the coin he has a large number of 1’s to his name, 11 to be exact, and is currently around 66/1.
Corach Rambler obviously must be respected, though I fear he may get outpaced if the ground description does not have the word ‘soft’ in it.
To me, form plays no part when looking for the winner. If the ground, for example, is on the soft side I will seek out horses proven on such ground, with the same applying if the ground is riding fast. I also like to see solid form over 3-miles plus and I want a horse in form. I do not even take much notice of horses that have shown in the past a liking for the Aintree fences. On occasion, a horse will skip round the Grand National with a smile on its whiskers and then return the following year and either fall at the first or run flat as an ironing board and give the impression of hating the whole day.
So my revised six against the field are: Capodanno, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Happygolucky, The Big Breakaway, Gin On Lime and as of this moment my lead contender Lifetime Ambition.