not many sleeps now until the big day.

​I am not a fan of the conditions of entry for the Grand National. I have made my position quite clear. I want to see good solid jumping stayers in the race above all others emphasises a need for good solid jumping horses that stay longer than a priest in need of saving a soul to impress Cardinal Brennan. Not formerly classy horses that for a reason beyond my understanding are still rated high enough to get into the race but on all known recent form have as little chance of winning as Foinavon had in1967.
That said, it is what it is.
Of the horses I originally put a pencilled tick against on publication of the weights, I am left with the following: Capodanno, The Big Dog, Lifetime Ambition, Gaillard Du Mesnil, The Big Breakaway, Minella Trump, Corach Rambler, Gin on Lime, Hill Sixteen.
Of those, you can rule out Minella Trump if the ground is soft/heavy and Hill Sixteen if it is not soft/heavy. I suspect Gin on Lime will run in the Topham, though it is my contention she will improve for a distance of ground. Forget the Cross-Country at Cheltenham, Rachel fell off her at the second-fence and gave us no clue to her capability as a jumper of non-standard fences or her ability to stay. If she were to run, I still think, at long odds, on goodish ground, she could out-run her category as a no-hoper.
I am not convinced The Big Dog will jump round and 11st 5Ib over-rates his ability in comparison to the likes of Capodanno, a horse Willie Mullins talked-up as a possible Gold Cup contender. If Capodanno was trained by a man who could make his mind up and stick to it, I would be all over Capodanno. But will he run and will Mark Walsh forsake Any Second Now to ride him?
I wasn’t impressed by Gaillard Du Mesnil at Cheltenham. It is a long-stretch of the imagination to claim it was anywhere near a competitive race and though he eventually got the job done, displaying an abundance of stamina, would he have won if Mahler’s Mission had not fallen when well clear?
This leaves me with Lifetime Ambition, The Big Breakaway and Corach Rambler and the obvious-to-see problem is that two out of the three are British-trained, reason enough in this time of Irish domination to without hesitation rule them out of calculations.
Let’s start with the horse I think will win and was my original choice back in February when the weights were announced. Lifetime Ambition is being trained for the race, no question. There is a ‘story’ attached to him as his trainer Jessie Harrington is currently being treated for breast cancer. So that box is ticked. He has had an old-fashioned build-up to the race. He has won over 3-miles and was 2nd at last year’s Punchestown Festival to Capodanno over 3-miles, beaten a running-on 6-lengths. He was also 2nd to The Big Dog at Navan, receiving 5Ibs on softer ground than at Punchestown. Although he has won on heavy, I would like goodish ground for Lifetime Ambition, though I will back him come what may as his profile suggests ‘National horse’ and he will be guaranteed to be cherry-ripe for the day.
Corach Rambler’s chance is obvious; it’s why he is favourite despite the burden of being British-trained. At 10st 5Ibs he is thrown-in at the weights and as long as he doesn’t get as far back as One For Arthur when he won, he shouldn’t give his supporters too many heart-attacks. To me, he’s the obvious winner. Yet trainers rarely win more than one Grand National. Even Willie Mullins has only won the race once.
I wish The Big Breakaway had not pulled-up at Cheltenham as being a soft-ground horse the conditions could not be blamed. I suspect when hope of being in the flame was extinguished Brendon Powell pulled-up to keep him fresh for Aintree. Ordinarily a non-finish before a run in the Grand National would put me off but if he starts at 33/1 or more, I’ll still, possibly, invest modestly. At the last moment, I rejected Rule The World when he won as ‘novices that have not won a chase never win Grand Nationals’. A decision that chills my soul to this day.
At the risk of being accused of allowing my heart to overrule my head, the two horses to come into my calculations of late are also British-trained. Silently, through a t.v. monitor, I have appealed to Venetia to run Royal Pagaille in the Grand National for the past two-seasons. He is a class act, perhaps he has a few more pounds on his back than I would like, but he is not going to win any other race at Aintree or Punchestown this season and aged 9 he is at his prime for such a searching test. Come on Venetia, by your and Charlie’s standards you have had a quiet season, give yourself a chance of ending it with a roar.
The other horse is Our Power. Deserves to get a run, is trained by a man who seems to have the golden touch and has a ready-made ‘story’ in that his owner Dai Walters is still recovering from helicopter crash that almost claimed his life.
I am not confident that the 2023 Grand National winner will be British-trained, though I think our chances are higher than the ante-post market would suggest. At this moment I remain with Lifetime Ambition, with Capodanno, Royal Pagaille and Our Power to make the first four. Though going with my lifetime record of rejecting horses that go on to win the race – Rule the World is far from the exception – if I were you, I would take a close look at The Big Breakaway, The Big Dog and Gaillard Du Mesnil.
By the way, I reject Any Second Now for age and weight reasons. Galvin because I doubt his resolution. Noble Yeats for weight reasons and lightening rarely strikes twice and if he win he could easily be another Red Rum and there never will be another Red Rum. Fury Road will not stay. Delta Work because he only wins soft races these days. Coko Beach lacks the class. Longhouse Poet didn’t stay last season, so why will he this season. Wouldn’t have Ain’t That A Shame on my mind and hope Rachel goes with the mare. Mr. Incredible, really. He might refuse to start. Might refuse at the first. Might love it. Love it. Love it! Would be nice, though, for Brian Hayes to get the glory for a change, rather than having to bathe reflectively in the success of his wonder-woman ‘other half’.