Last night I dreamt that Diol Ker won the Grand National. That part of the dream may come true, only the jockey was called Connor, Miss Connor, the wonder-jockey. No other details, I am afraid. Dreams are mad, aren’t they?
In the past, I have had premonitions or instinctive thoughts that have come true but I have never found dreams to be a reliable source of finding winners. I admit that I do rely on instinct over studied form for inspiration. Not that I would trust instinct to provide me with a fortune. I am long way short on confidence in my own ability to live the life of a gambler. I do, though, believe you can throw the form-book out of an open window when it comes to finding the winner. Corach Rambler is, according to the experts, 10Ibs ‘well-in’ and should by rights win ten-lengths. Yet should be clout the third, get pushed wide at the Canal Turn, not get a smooth passage thereafter and that 10Ibs becomes a worthless benefit. Ben Nevis won in 1980 despite having coughed a few days before the race and only ran as so many people were crossing the Atlantic to see him run. When Last Suspect won, again trained by Tim Forster, Hywel Davies’s instructions were ‘keep remounting’. The form was not in the book for either to have a hope of winning. Nor was the intelligence that one was coughing and that the other held neither the confidence of the trainer nor the owner. If you listen to the ex-champion jockeys who parade their expert opinion as part of the excellent I.T.V. team there would be no point in looking beyond the first half-dozen in the betting for your choice. None of them selected Noble Yeats last year, though he will be in many of their top three this time around when he must win with the burden of 18Ibs extra on his back. He may well win and I wouldn’t put anyone off him. Red Rum won with a similar weight in 1973 and backed-up the following year with 12-st. It can be done and Noble Yeats does have the cut of Red Rum about him as the longer the race the better he seems to travel. Perhaps not so much these days but in the past old soldiers did eventually get their day in the Aintree glow, though in former times past winners tend only to run with distinction in subsequent efforts. Team Spirit won in 1964 at his fifth attempt. In normal circumstances, though, the winner usually goes to the Grand National completely ignorant of all the equine trauma associated with becoming a legend of the sport. An aspect of the Grand National that curls my lip is when a ‘form expert’ spunkily exerts his authority on the subject by declaring a horse a ‘no-hoper’, as if he has not bothered to go beyond the previous three or four years of the history of the race. Mon Mome was a ‘no-hoper’, remember and turned out to be a memorable winner of the race. It is why we must not rule out Diol Ker on the basis that he is, in places, priced at 100/1 and that in my dreams he won with Connor the wonder-jockey riding him. And nobody say in response ‘Aint That A Shame’ that dream isn’t coming true, as you will have to go all in on Rachel Blackmore hogging the headlines again. When the weights were announced back in February, my instincts stopped my eye at Lifetime Ambition. He has been trained all season with the Grand National in mind, a plan set in motion as far back as last season. Robbie Power declared him a ‘Grand National type’, he is trained by Jesse Harrington, a great trainer who has won everything else and provides the obligatory ‘story’ as she is currently battling breast cancer. He had good form as a novice, he has jumped the Aintree fences in the past and though I am hoping the ground will dry out from the soft of yesterday, I refuse to be dissuaded of his chances just because no expert has so far not even mentioned his name. Perhaps they know something I do not. The only fly in the ointment of my premise is that for the past couple of weeks, after a trawl through the form, the name Capodanno has emerged from the depths of what is left of my brain cells to confuse the situation. As with Lifetime Ambition, he too has good novice chase form, perhaps superior form to most of the runners. He won at Punchestown last May, though has only run once since. The Mullins’ team rate him a potential Gold Cup horse and though Townend has gone for Gaillard Du Mesnil, would the genius Willie be running a horse they hold in high regard in the Grand National just to get him right for Punchestown? And surely, Danny Mullins would be on Carefully Selected if they thought he had a better chance than Capodanno? And Willie Mullins is a genuine genius, remember. Lack of a previous run has never stopped a horse of his in the past and that’s the thinking denting my confidence in Lifetime Ambition. The one British-trained horse I have a fancy for is The Big Breakaway, even though he pulled-up at Cheltenham and was a hard ride when Brendon Powell excelled on him earlier in the season at Haydock. Aintree might enthuse him into running into some place money. Let’s hope and prayer for a worthy winner, with a good, even, first-time start, with no controversy, no protestors, with every horse and jockey taking part without need of veterinary or N.H.S. care in the aftermath. Crossed-fingers and good luck to everyone involved.
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