michael o'leary goes off on one again.

​Michael O’Leary is perhaps right when he says it would be wrong to ask Tiger Roll to carry 11-st 10Ib in the Grand National on April 9th. He is not right, though, to complain about the 11-st 4 the handicapper has allotted the great horse and if he doesn’t want him to carry top-weight all Michael O’Leary has to do is to run Conflated, thereby allowing every horse to carry the weight given to them by the official handicapper.
I must admit I would have regarded 11-st or around that mark as being fair to Tiger Roll, though I suspect the O’Leary boys wouldn’t have been any happier and would have gone off on a rant anyway, and I cannot accept the handicapper justifying 11st 4Ib based on his Cheltenham Cross-Country win when he ran away from some really quite moderate horses. But again, if the O’Leary boys had wanted to diminish Tiger Roll’s handicap mark they could have run him in any number of handicap chases in both Ireland and over here.
Personally, I don’t think Tiger Roll could win this year’s race if he was on 10st as the indications are, sadly, that the light has finally got out in one of the sport’s great legends.
My eye this year is drawn to more horses than last year. Usually, I find it pretty easy to draw a list and reduce it to six at this stage. This year my eye was drawn instantly to one horse, with a dozen others making me think twice and three times.
Melon is intriguing and I hope Willie Mullins gives it a go with possibly the best horse in training that hasn’t won a race in three-years, has never won beyond 2-miles and has only ever won three-races. He’ll either win or pull-up, I suspect.
Chris’s Dream was running a big race until unseating 4 last year out and was going equally well in the Becher Chase in November until having a disagreement with his jockey at the Canal Turn. Jonjo O’Neill jnr was seen having a little tantrum as the horse galloped away.
I was hoping Franco de Port would be entered as he is the sort of quiet horse that can sometimes come good at Aintree, though I am bemused he is allotted 11-st 4, making his form as good as a two-time winner of the race. I was expecting 10st 8 or near about, though anyone fancying Longhouse Poet off 10-12 must expect, all being well, that Franco de Port will be close to his tail for most of the race.
Of the Closutton battalion, Burrows Saint looks the best bet. He ran a blinder last year and was going equally as well as the winner until getting tired between the last two fences. Willie Mullins has managed to campaign him in the interim to keep him on the same mark as last year and I can’t think why Paul Townend would reject him in favour of one his stable-mates.
Mount Ida is interesting, as is Two For Gold, Escaria Ten, Fiddlerontheroof and Dingo Dollar. One I really like at longer odd is de Rasher Counter. This horse was an eye-catcher to me in the Denman at Newbury behind Eldorado Allen, his first race for 16-months and is being trained specifically for the race, apparently. A former Ladbrokes Trophy winner, he is quite leniently treated to my mind with 10st 6 and I fancy him significantly more than the other, and more fancied, Emma Lavelle possible, Éclair Surf.
Whichever horse I select at this stage, though, would be changed on the day if by some miracle of a divine deluge Secret Reprieve got into the race. He missed by one last year and will possibly not even be a reserve this time around. If the whole ethos of the Grand National handicapper is to ‘get the right horses’ in the race, then explain to me how a Welsh Grand National winner is rated lower than thirty-horses above him, a list that includes Plan of Attack, Hill Sixteen, Smoking Gun, Fortescue and Milan Native. Makes no sense.
My idea of the winner is Santini, a horse that has had ‘Grand National’ written all over him since he was a novice. He’ll jump, he’ll stay and he is classy, retaining most, if not all, of his ability judged by his run behind Chantry House in the Cotswold Chase last month. 10st 10 for a former runner-up in a good Cheltenham Gold Cup is a fabulous weight, receiving perhaps 10 to 14Ibs from those at the top of the handicap depending whether Galvin or Conflated turn-out.
His next race will be the Gold Cup and if he runs well his current price of 50/1 will tumble. Yes, he will need soft ground and without it he may not run but the same could be said for a whole lot of the intended runners. If I see any wavering on the part of his connections to not take up his entry, I shall be sending begging letters to the Polly Gundry stable, reminding her that this could be her only chance to win the Grand National.
I agree with Henry de Bromhead that the handicapper has gone overboard by putting Minella Times up by 15Ibs as he’ll need to be Red Rum-esq to win under that burden. No amount of ‘seeing round corners’ will get Rachael home in front this time around, I suspect. I have the suspicion that Snow Leopardess will not stay, though I am sure whoever rides her will not be allowing her to roll away in front as Aidan Coleman did in the Becher. She may have been idling that day but I cannot get away from the image of her stopping to a walk at the finishing post.
My three for the race – and remember one of my three last year (the only one of the three to take part) was Minella Times – is Santini, Burrows Saint and de Rasher Counter.