Matt Chapman: why he is undoubtedly wrong even if proved correct.

​Matt Chapman, the all-grown-up Tin-Tin lookalike, is, annoyingly at times, quite astute when it comes to reading a race, especially as he wouldn’t know a stifle from a chestnut, a cavesson from a coronet. But when he is wrong, when he boasts loudly of a superior knowledge, when he raises his voice a decibel or two as if volume will always trump sincere, if directly opposing opinion, he is usually wrong by a country mile.
He is wrong on the Frodon front, on whether he will last out the Gold Cup distance, and he is wrong for more than one reason.
Firstly, the evidence, as little of that as we can call on. Tired horses, Matt, do not give the last fence in a 3-mile plus chase a foot of air, as Frodon did in the Cotswold Chase. That told Paul Nicholls everything he needed to know. And though you perceived the diminishing distance of his victory, over a horse who seems the very epitome of the staying chaser, as evidence of a horse coming to the last strands of his stamina then, Matt, you must have had your eyes closed during the finish of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup as in that race too Frodon was easing up in the final furlong. Very few 3-mile condition chases, except when the winner is undoubtedly many stones better than the opposition, are won going-away, head-in-chest. The clever horses know when the race is won and merely respond to their jockey’s urging to continue galloping.
I suspect when Kauto Star first ran over 3-miles Matt expressed the same doubts as he has about Frodon staying. No doubt it was the same with Desert Orchid and Sizing John.
A second reason why Frodon will stay 3-miles plus is that Paul Nicholls is convinced he will stay and is rarely wrong when he ups a horse in trip, is he, Matt? When he has reservations about a horse’s stamina, Politologue and Master Minded come to mind for example, his reservations are nine times out of ten proved correct. And when he states categorically that Frodon wouldn’t have the pace to win the Ryanair, anyone with any sense would take that information on board and not make a big noise about why the multiple times champion trainer is wrong.
A third reason why Matt is wrong on this topic is that Frodon’s owner is eight-years-old, has owned horses for more than forty years and with age not being on his side might never again get the opportunity to stand in the parade ring as the Gold Cup field circle around him. In Frodon he has a horse who genuinely has a right to run in the race. He might not yet be a stout enough stayer to win a Gold Cup but nobody, not even Matt Chapman, would be surprised if he finished third or fourth. If the ground were to be proper good ground, not that Frodon necessarily requires good ground as he has won plenty of races on heavy, the favourites, Presenting Percy and Native River would be greatly inconvenienced. Good ground would also mean Coneygree would be an unlikely runner, allowing Frodon and Bryony Frost to set a pace convenient to their tactics.
The fourth reason why Frodon should be allowed his chance in the Gold Cup lies more with the jockey than the horse, trainer or owner. This will be the first time in the history of the race that a female jockey has a genuine opportunity to at least feature in the finish of the race. At best, of course, she could win the race and give racing the media attention of its dreams. And remember Matt, in last year’s Grand National you gave each of the female riders a squeak of winning, yet you gave Milansbar and Bryony no hope of even finishing the race. She finished fifth, of course, the best of the British.
Last year Presenting Percy was my nap of the Festival. I even tipped him before the meeting even started to win this season’s Gold Cup. On soft ground he remains my idea of the winner. Yet it concerns me that connections have refused to run him this season on the prevailing good ground. So, will they run him if the ground is on the good side of soft? I suggest that if the ground were to be heavy then Frodon might be re-routed to the Ryanair. I even suspect that if he ran in the Gold Cup there might be one or two more seasoned, resolute stayers to overhaul him from the last fence. But that would not make Matt right. It would simply mean that other horses stayed better than he did. I always remember David Elsworth telling the media, who to a man thought Barnbrook Again hadn’t managed to beat Dessie in the King George because he didn’t get the trip: ‘well, he stayed better than those he beat.’
Matt well be right; Frodon possibly won’t win the Gold Cup this year. But for Matt to be proved right he will have to miss the Ryanair and run in the Gold Cup, which the majority is keen to see.