kingscote, probert, hornby - who would have bet on that forecast?

​Look, my analysis of both the Oaks and Derby was rubbish. Nothing new there, then. I am not even sure if my prediction that Desert Crown would end the season the top three-year-old will prove to be correct. In fact, the part of my analysis where I predicted a 100/1 winner, even if I fell upon the wrong horse, was the closet I got to boasting about the part-reliability of my surety of intuition. Hoo Ya Mal, I remind you, was second at 150/1.
Whereas the Oaks was predictable, with Moore beating Dettori, with Doyle best of the rest, the Derby had a jockey outcome no one would have predicted. Richard Kingscote, followed David Probert and the unlucky Rob Hornby. Three jockeys without a classic winner between them and hardly household names even with their closest neighbours let alone the public. The result should remind owners and trainers that if the horse is good enough virtually any experienced jockey will get them home in front.
Let no dispute that Desert Crown was a good, deserving winner. He quickened like a top-class horse and has the sort of even temperament to allow him to continue to improve throughout the season. I was of the opinion the Epsom Derby would come too soon for him and that he would struggle in a big field and on possibly the most undulating course in the country. I was wrong. Again, nothing new there, then.
Desert Crown was far from a lucky winner. He won, relatively, with his head in his chest and though we cannot be certain he would have found more if confronted by a rival in the last half-furlong, we must assume he would have knuckled down and ran to the line. What can be said for certain is that Westover was definitely unlucky. I.T.V. chose not to replay back to the point where the winner and Westover were running upsides one another, both beginning their runs, both full of running. Desert Crown achieved an unimpeded challenge, whereas Westover was stopped twice and had to slalom his way to a position where he could challenge Hoo Ya Mal for second. Desert Crown was away and gone by the time Westover saw clear ground in front of him. Bot boy, did he quicken once he was in clear daylight!
I am sure the two will line-up at the Curragh for the Irish Derby and I wouldn’t want to predict which of the two might prevail. I believe Westover was far more luckless than the pundits and journalists give credit and the rematch will be fascinating.
The other talking point from Epsom was how unfortunate was Emily Upjohn in the Oaks? On a scale of 1 to 10, I would suggest her unorthodox getaway from the stalls warranted an 8. But if you watch a replay she was never that far behind Tuesday at any point in the race, though Ryan Moore always had his filly in a more favourable position than Frankie could ever achieve on his filly. Again, if they should meet in the Irish Oaks, I wouldn’t know which of the two will come out on top. As with Desert Crown, Tuesday has the potential to improve right throughout the season and come the Curragh she might have come on far more than Emily Upjohn, and it is conceivable that John Gosden’s filly may have now reached her peak. I certainly would not advise anyone to back her for the Arc at this moment in her career.
As anyone would know, I would dearly have loved Hollie Doyle to have won on Nashwa. It wasn’t to be, though. She rode the filly perfectly well and snuggled her into a winning position only for Tuesday and Emily Upjohn to quicken away from her. The combined opinion of her connections was that she did not fully stay the distance, yet I did not see her flag in the final furlong, did you? In fact, she pulled clear of those around her. Of course, she might be better over a slightly shorter trip, only time will tell. But to my eyes, she stayed the distance, only not as well as the first two. Again, she is young and inexperienced, with the potential to strengthen and mature as the season progresses. I would like to see her tried again over 1-mile 4, though I doubt that will be at the Curragh. The first two from Epsom, I believe, will always be her superior.
It is only a matter of time before Hollie breaks that final glass ceiling.