I would not back against Oisin Murphy retaining his title no matter what he says about not prioritising his defence this season. Does he not say it every year? He is not favourite, though, to be champion. He is not even second favourite.
Favourite is Rossa Ryan at 11/10. I admire Rossa’s approach to life. He would like to be champion, he intends giving it a good kick this season, but if should fail to succeed he will not cry about it. I would have him favourite to ride the most winners in a calendar year but I am not as confident he will win enough races during the arbitrary period of the championship to take the crown this season. Second favourite is Billy Loughnane. I predicted last season (or was it the season before. Time passes so quickly when you reach my age) that within a few years he would become champion jockey, a bold shout as he had not yet succeeded to the throne of champion apprentice. At 9/4 he is too short in the market even though without big-name horses to ride he will doubtless mop-up at the more minor meetings throughout the summer. Oisin is 11/4, which represents better value than the two ahead of him in the market. Oisin is Oisin. The more I see of him, the more I like him. Tom Marquand is 11/2. He is handicapped slightly by being stable jockey to a brilliant if cautious trainer in William Haggas, a man who likes to take his time with both 2-year and 3-year-olds. And more so than Ryan and Loughnane, he is also hampered by having to ride abroad on Sundays, as well as Ireland. He deserves to be champion, though I cannot see it happening this season. William Buick is 14/1 and would doubtless be champion again if he put his mind to it. Quality is Buick’s game, though, and as well as forays to France and Ireland on weekends, Godolphin run plenty of horses in the U.S. and Buick will go where Charlie Appleby sends him. The most tempting bet, even though I have no expectations of her achieving the fete, is the 100/1 about Hollie Doyle shaking the tree again by becoming champion jockey. 100/1! Given she invariably finishes within single digits numbers of husband Tom each season and he is 11/2, 100/1 is a present for backers. Love to see her as champion jockey as it will be a great boost to the sport, but I just cannot see it happening unless trainers get behind her to make it happen. Tomorrow at Leopardstown, Jody Townend will achieve an honour that brother Paul must have thought highly unlikely for either of them. Jody rides Reaching High in a Lady Riders handicap for the King and Queen. Yes, Willie Mullins now trains for the British monarchy. I hope the Closutton magic works on the former Sir Michael Stoute trained horse and that Reaching High proves to be a high-class dual-purpose horse. The She’s Perfect team have chosen to appeal against her demotion in the French 1,000 Guineas. Having seen the camera footage from the rear, I believe they have a sporting chance of winning their case. It is surprising, though, to see how the verdict of the Longchamp stewards has split opinion, with some well-respected commentators giving the Basher Watts team little chance of getting the race back, while others cannot believe there was an enquiry in the first place. I sit on the fence. I believe the Basher Watts syndicate were wronged, while having no faith their appeal will be successful. I cross my fingers on their behalf. As with the domination of Willie Mullins in National Hunt, which was amusing at first, so it is becoming with Aiden O’Brien on the flat. Both are close to near perfection, though thus far this classic trial period O’Brien has already achieved perfection. Indeed, given he has had runners-up in several trials, he should be marked-up as perfection+. It is, though, not a good look for the sport, especially when it comes to the classics on the flat. To just take the Epsom Derby and Oaks for example. Not only where are the British-trained opposition going to come from but where are the French-trained horses? Breeders, I believe, are killing the classic races, apart, perhaps, for the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas, by breeding for speed and ignoring the history and tradition of our sport by treating staying blood like it is a virus that needs to be vaccinated against. Of course, Ballydoyle will rule supreme – Coolmore are the only breeding organisation 100% committed to breeding for stamina. My solution to the problem, to stemming the flow of classic riches to O’Brien – pour millions of pounds into the prize-money of the Ascot Gold Cup and the Doncaster and Goodwood Cups and add-on a bonus for any horse that wins the Stayers Triple Crown. And cut the number of Group 1 5 and 6-furlongs races. We have to turn-around the leviathan that is the breeding industry and twist the arms of breeders to persuade them to stop following the trend of the U.S. and remind them that the equine heroes of the ages were always Derby and Gold Cup winners.
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