IT IS TIME TO THINK ABOUT THE GRAND NATIONAL AGAIN.

​Since I was a wee boy the Grand National has had me in its thrall. I am now a wee old (ish) man and still I cannot wait for spring and Aintree. The day I fail to get all tingly at the heart at the thought of the Grand National being soon upon us will be no doubt my last day on this Earth.
My first reaction to this year’s entries was one of disappointment. When the fences were altered, the distance shortened and restrictions imposed upon horses and jockeys, we were, perhaps not promised as much, given to believe that the quality of horse running in the race would significantly improve. That is not happening, as this year’s entries prove. The race is no less worthy on account of not one of the leading fancies for the Gold Cup being entered, though it is disappointing that a prize fun of £1-million cannot attract a horse of the calibre of Sizing John or Native River.
There are three potential superstars entered, though: Total Recall may yet win the Gold Cup and 11st 1lb would then seem a very lenient weight, though as Willie Mullins is yet to commit to either race it suggests to me that his Ladbroke Trophy success is as good as he is. And of course Bellshill, tantalisingly easily treated by the handicapper with only 10st 7lbs, might be absolutely thrown in. Time will only tell, though as I write he has only run four times over fences, falling once, and I suspect he might be directed towards the Irish National rather than be risked at Aintree. The other potential superstar is Blaklion as I agree with Nigel Twiston-Davies that he is a bit in the mould of Red Rum. He’ll not win three Grand Nationals but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that he could win one if not two.
I have no doubt that ridden with greater restraint, and it is rare to fire the criticism at Noel Fehily that he rode a misjudged race last year, I have no doubt he would have either beaten One For Arthur or finished a close second. He was only beaten just under ten lengths, giving weight to those who finished in front of him. I would think Sam Twiston-Davies would give his eye-teeth (whatever they are) to ride Blaklion and not one of Paul Nicholls runners.
Though he has better fancied entries the horse of Paul Nicholls that I like is Silsol as I thought he ran a promising race in the Welsh National on ground that over a marathon trip was too deep for him. On better ground I think he is a live each-way bet.
It is not because I have dubbed this season ‘the year of the oldie’ that I like the chances of the spring chicken Raz de Maree. Thirteen-year-olds just don’t win Grand Nationals. It is a damning statistic that should not be ignored. Yet thirteen-year-olds don’t ordinarily win Welsh Nationals and yet this year two horses of that age battled it out to the line. 10st 5lb is no weight and if the ground is soft I cannot see Raz de Maree being out of the first four.
Three current outsiders I refuse to ignore are Vieux Lion Rouge, A Genie In Abottle and Alpha Des Obeaux. I have backed David Pipe’s horse for the past two renewals and though it is obvious he doesn’t quite get home no horse will give the punter a better run for his money. Why I like the look of Noel Meade’s horse I can’t really say, only that the trainer must rate him to have tried him in the Ladbroke Trophy when only a six-year-old and 10st 8lbs seems a nice weight for a horse who should be improving. Alpha Des Obeaux is a horse in the mould of Rule The World, the last horse I crossed off my list two seasons ago. My banker for Cheltenham this year is Presenting Percy (as well as Saint Calvados) and Mouse Morris’s horse was not beaten far by him at Gowran over hurdles off level weights. Though I do not expect any of the aforementioned to win the Grand National they form my initial list.
The two I fancy the most after Blaklion are Cause of Causes and Abolitionist. If Cause of Causes is to win a Grand National it will be this year and it will be interesting to see if Barry Geraghty chooses him over J.P.McManus’s classier entries such as Edwulf and Minella Rocco. For some reason Cause of Causes has one pound less than last year and as all ground conditions come alike to him there will be no sweating on too much or too little rainfall coming up to the big day.
I was hoping Rachael Blackmore would be riding Abolitionist this year but now he is with Dr.Newland that is perhaps unlikely. She gave him a great spin in last year’s Irish National, coming to win the race only for Our Duke to skate away like a horse in a different class. He did make a mess of the last fence and was just beaten for second but he looked a dour stayer and his new trainer is adept at improving his acquisitions.
At the moment I find it hard, even though I dislike tipping favourites, to look beyond Blaklion, with Cause of Causes and Abolitionist to follow him past the jam-stick. But as I previously suggested I could not see Raz de Maree being out of the top four I will include him in my initial list.