it is going to stop raining!

​The weather forecast for the rest of the week, at least in the South-West, is for four straight dry days and nights. It has to be said that weather forecasts this end of the country can be pretty hit and miss, experiencing wet days when dry weather was forecast and vice-versa. One thing is for sure, if we get little rain through the coming week-end and into the start of next week, it will put the cat amongst the pigeons given the assumption Cheltenham is expected to at least start with very soft ground and that all form this season has come from ground varying from soft to Somme-like, as was the case at Doncaster last week-end.
And remember the year Desert Orchid won the Gold Cup: beautifully sunny and spring-like on the Tuesday and Wednesday with ground approaching fast, by the Thursday, Gold Cup day back then, there was a cold and snowy dawn followed in quick succession by sleet and miserable rain. Such days are never forgotten.
Cheltenham usually dries out quite quickly since they installed state-of-the-art drainage to ensure the track lost fewer meetings due to waterlogging. If spring weather comes out of hiding and the rainclouds stay away, the ground might start soft but by Friday the clerk of the course could be agonising over instigating a bit of light watering to take any sting out of the ground.
I am prepared to stick my neck out and suggest the first day will be missing its superstar. By next Tuesday, I dare say Constitution Hill will be fit and raring to go, though to turn-up with a chance of fending off State Man he will need to be raring to go by this Tuesday for N. Henderson to allow him into the horsebox travelling to Prestbury. Nicky Henderson is a great trainer, with a record, especially at the Festival, to confirm that he knows what he is doing and that his decisions are invariably the right decisions. I doubt if Constitution Hill will run, with his sights retrained on Aintree and Punchestown. So that is another race gift-wrapped for export to Closutton.
Without C.H. in the line-up, and with no other possible runner in the race, I half-expect Gordon Elliott to do an about-turn and run Irish Point in the Champion Hurdle, especially if the ground remains soft. So that will be a one-two for Ireland. For what its worth, the best bet in the Champion Hurdle is Nemean Lion each-way, if enough go to post for each-way betting, as I cannot see Kerry Lee’s horse finishing any better than third behind Irish Point and State Man.
If the ground remains soft on the Wednesday, I have an inkling that Edwardstown is going to cause a shock in the 2-mile Champion Chase, as long as they make the running with him and he jumps with his usual aplomb.
I suppose Willie Mullins will win all three novice hurdles, though which three no one can possibly know. Doubtless Willie Mullins doesn’t know either. Something tells me that Willie Mullins will suffer a few disappointments along the way this year and Lossiemouth might join El Fabiolo in that regard. The experts all say that Lossiemouth has the best form in the Mares Hurdle, yet Love Envoi was second last year to no less a superstar than Honeysuckle. Surely that is better form than anything so far achieved by Lossiemouth?
As with most people, I hope Paisley Park wins the Stayers Hurdle, though I doubt he will. I would like Dasher Drashel to win the race but doubt he will. Other than that, I have no real idea about the race, though if pushed to suggest a winner, I would go with Noble Yeats as, like Tiger Roll, he just seems capable of anything.
I like Fugatif in the Ryanair and Paul Nicholls horse (Ginny’s Delight? – name escapes me at the minute) in the middle-distance novice chase and Fact To File in the 3-mile novice chase.
Galopin Des Champs should win the Gold Cup, though having said that Shishkin would win the Gold Cup after Aintree last year, I’ll stick with him. I would like Ahoy Senor to win and Venetia Williams horse to win (again, my memory fails me – I’m 70 in April, God damn it! And I have been kicked in the head too many times). Corach Rambler for a place before winning a second Grand National.
Willie Mullins will win the Prestbury Cup, with Ireland second and Britain third with six-winners.
If I have one wish for this Cheltenham it would be for a female rider other than Rachel to win a race. Hard to imagine it happening but I shall cross my fingers anyway. It would be nice if, at least, one of the smaller trainers took home a big prize. Paul Townend to be leading rider.