has the second-coming finally arrived?

​I refer, as if you didn’t know, to Envoi Allen, the latest in a long history of potential superstar steeplechasers, of which Samcro has taken his turn to fail to come up to expectations, as good as he is. For the record, I have few reservations about Envoi Allen. Unbeaten in three disciplines of the sport, proved at Cheltenham last March that he can dig deep to win and as fluid a novice chaser as any before him.
I’m not mad keen about the Marsh Chase at the Festival, if I am honest, as it has made life so much easier for connections to keep the best novices apart. There was a time, a time less complicated, when the speed novices went to the Arkle and the staying-type to the 3-mile novice, the title of which this year escapes me. (How can one of the major races of the season not have a proper history-defining title? As it is with so many races at the Festival these days). It is my contention that the 2½-mile Marsh Chase is for novices lacking the speed for the Arkle and the stamina of the 3-mile novice chase. It is an in-between distance that in the past was not given any great credence. But the Marsh is where Envoi Allen is ultimately heading and if he eats the Cheltenham fences – we already know he has a liking for Prestbury – as he did at Down Royal and Punchestown (or was it Fairyhouse?), he will scoot up and be made ante-post favourite for next season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Doubtless we will have to wait until next season to find out if he will actually benefit for a step up in trip but that only builds the anticipation and gives journalists something to write about.
Of course, what Gordon Elliott is interested in at the moment is educating his latest superstar, to get him to Cheltenham suitably experienced to continue his rise to the heavenly stars of the steeplechasing legends.
Nicky Henderson is on the same mission with Shishkin, though all roads for him to lead to the Arkle and ultimately the 2-mile Champion Chase. As with Envoi Allen, Shishkin was massively impressive on his first start over fences, looking unbeatable at even this early stage of his new career. Neither Shishkin nor Envoi Allen will be truly tested before Cheltenham as rival trainers will do everything in their powers to keep their best novices out of the firing line of their apparent supremacy, hoping one or the other, or both, fail to make their appointment with destiny come March.
Do you think the winner of this Saturday’s Henry VIII at Sandown will at any stage before March take on Shishkin? I am sure Willie Mullins will field something against Envoi Allen when he runs again in the New Year if only to find out how his best novice might fare against him. Which is unfair on the public and even Shishkin and Envoi Allen’s connections as their first truly competitive steeplechase will be around Cheltenham, a course that shows little mercy for reputations.
If all eight entered for the Henry VIII stand their ground it will make for an informative race. Eldorado Allen, Phoenix Way, Allmankind, Ga Law and Hitman might all be capable of giving Shishkin a run for his money, though if he was amongst the entry list for Saturday how many of them would oppose him? For what its worth, I think one of the 4-year-olds will prevail on Saturday, preferring Allmankind.
Incidentally, by chance I watched the 2012 Tingle Creek this morning and though Sprinter Sacre won on the bridle, with Barry Geraghty sitting as still as a statue, a performance that blew us all away on the day, he actually beat nothing of any substance, as the form book will confirm. Of course when he won the 2-mile Champion Chase that season he looked to me like the best 2-mile chaser of my lifetime, beating Sizing Europe by double digit lengths, but it worries me now that his status in the pantheon of 2-mile greats is based on beating mostly second-graders, with the obvious exception of his unforgettable 2016 Champion Chase win, perhaps my favourite race of all time.
And that is I think the point I am making: heaping adjective rich accolades on horses when they have not even reached chasing maturity, as we all already doing with Envoi Allen and Shishkin, as some did with Samcro and a hundred and one others that came before him, is tempting fate to throw a custard pie in our faces. We should enjoy these horses for what they are today and leave judgement on their true merit till after they have retired when we can comb the form book to discover the true merits of those they vanquished.
When Denman won his first Hennessey, I said that I had witnessed the emergence of the new Arkle, when he won the Cheltenham Gold Cup I almost cried in realisation that my earlier forecast had born fruit and then through nobody’s fault fate intervened and, like Flyingbolt in Arkle’s time, it was not to be. This is why I will not be hailing Envoi Allen as the second-coming, while keeping my fingers crossed that he is. Not that he’ll be any kind of rival to Arkle as he will never be rated 3-stone superior to any other horse around and I doubt he’ll win the number of races Kauto Star won or two Hennesseys like Denman. I do pray, though, that fate does not trip him up, as it takes so much delight in doing when a horse gives the impression of being as rare a specimen as a modern-day Arkle.