DOWN TO THE NITTY-GRITTY OF SELECTING A WINNER.

​Back in February when the weights for this year’s Grand National were published I picked eight horses that initially took my fancy. Of the eight only four remain – Raz de Maree, Vieux Lion Rouge, Alpha Des Obeaux and Blaklion. I have lost Silsol, A Genie In Abottle (sadly), Cause of Causes (now retired) and Abolitionist. Over time I have come to like the chances of Milansbar and since Cheltenham Shantou Flyer has won favour with me.
When finishing a close second at the Festival Shantou Flyer looked to me like a dour stayer that might do well in the National. I then watched a recording of last year’s race and was disappointed to be reminded that he pulled up not long after the Canal Turn second time round and I began to go off his chances. Since then I have visited Richard Hobson’s website and discovered that he was almost knocked over last year and pulled up accordingly. He was trained by Rebecca Curtis last season and things have not been right in her stables for a good while and most of the horses sold out of her yard have seemingly had a resurgence in form. So Shantou Flyer remains on my list of possible winners.
I cannot get excited by any of the favourites except Blaklion. But will he stay? It was informative to read in his Racing Post column that Sam Twiston-Davies intends to ride Blaklion in a similar way to Noel Fehily in last year’s race, even though his father has said many times that the horse will be ridden more conservatively. Matt Chapman might get himself some interesting material if he lingers close to the father and son in the parade ring on Saturday.
Tom Scudamore is in the same predicament as Sam Twiston-Davies as Vieux Lion Rouge also seems to love Aintree but not the run from the Melling Road to the finishing post. He got closer last year and if the ground defeats the majority of the runners his jumping may get him home in front. I know sentiment is the friend of fools but I would love Tom Scudamore to emulate his grandfather but though I can see him finishing third or fourth I can’t envisage him winning.
I will condemn Raz de Maree by saying thirteen-year-olds do not win Grand Nationals, as they don’t also win Welsh Nationals. He was unlucky last year and will have his beloved soft ground and I would think Robbie Power can’t wait for Saturday to come around as with good luck he is almost certain of a good spin off the old horse.
Which leaves me with the horse I think will win the Grand National. Alpha Des Obeaux. If he does win the media furore will be like nothing we have ever seen before and I hope Rachael Blackmore, a modest young woman by all accounts, a jockey who allows her riding to do the talking, is prepared for the celebrity status that comes attached to a female jockey winning the National.
This, though, is my dilemma. The three horses I fancy the most are to be ridden by two women and a callow youth too young to drive. It’s just not possible, is it? I hold all three jockeys in the highest regard and would give half my spleen for one of the females to win as horse racing could not get a better story than Rachael Blackmore or Bryony Frost winning the Grand National. Or indeed Katie Walsh.
But back in February I fancied Alpha Des Obeaux without there ever being a hint that Blackmore would get the ride, so it would be cowardly of me now to back peddle as the horse has done nothing wrong in the meantime. Nor for that matter has the jockey. Alpha Des Obeaux has a similar profile to Rule The World who I fancied but ultimately rejected two years ago. A horse with good quality form who is just a wee bit high in the handicap for any race other than the Grand National. So I will remain faithful to Rachael Blackmore and hope luck plays its part and allows her name to become immortalised as the first female jockey to win the greatest horse race in the world.
And by the by: it may be fiction but Elisabeth Taylor did not win the Grand National on The Pie in National Velvet as the horse was disqualified because of an ineligible jockey.
On Saturday, all being well, I will go into my local bookie for my annual visit (unless I have winnings to draw, of course) and back Alpha Des Obeaux to win and Milansbar and Shantou Flyer for a place. Two women and a boy.  What would Fred Winter, Tim Brookshaw and other macho jockeys of their time have thought of such a prospect?
If I were you I would back Katie Walsh because with my luck Bryony and Rachael will doubtless fall at the first and ‘the boy’ will be too busy checking his e-mails to hear the starter call the jockeys to order.