COME 5.15, SATURDAY APRIL 6.

​Publication of the weights for the Grand national remains, at least for me, a signature day in the racing calendar. The race almost begins with the publication of the weights, with publication of the entries almost a false start in the proceedings.
An aspect of the whole shebang I cannot understand is when a trainer will announce almost immediately that a certain horse will not run for no better reason than it has been allotted two pounds more than expected. Or that more simply he or she believes the Scottish National would suit the horse better. Why bother entering and wasting the owner’s hard-earned entrance money.
Gordon Elliott has sort of said something similar, not withstanding he might have as many as fourteen or fifteen runners this time around, with his pessimistic outlook on Tiger Roll’s chances of bringing off a famous double on the grounds that two pounds extra to carry makes it very difficult for him. He’s a little squirt of a racehorse, he can barely see over the top the fences and admittedly he has nothing in hand on Pleasant Company and others but wasn’t it difficult for him last year and didn’t he still prevail? I don’t think two pound will be the beating of him. Eight pounds, yes, if the weights go up and he ends up with top-weight.
The two that immediately caught my eye were Rock The Casbah (10.9) and Ms Parfois (10.2). The first may want good ground, though such details can be mere incidentals where the Grand National is concerned, and the second may want it soft, though again taking to the fences is of far greater importance than the underfoot conditions. The mare will definitely get the trip and circumstance has forced Anthony Honeyball’s into giving her a very light campaign thus far. With Rock The Casbah it is not as clear cut. But he’s being laid out for the race and I’m not sure Phillip Hobbs is in the habit of targeting a single race for one of his charges.
Last year I backed Alpha Des Obeaux and though the Chair tripped him up, and it did seem a right purler of a fall, until then he had jumped like a real National horse and I was determined to side with him again. Looking at how he has been thus far campaigned I would suggest Gordon Elliott is laying him out for the race and last time at Gowran he was a close second to Invitation Only, is one of Willie Mullin’s Gold Cup horses, with no less than fifteen Grand National entries in his wake. And he carries the same weight as last year, though he has not yet won beyond three-miles.
I also backed Milansbar last year, the only one of mine to actually finish, and I am as disappointed as I suspect his connections are to see him allotted only 9st 8lbs, which means he needs a bit of a miracle, which he got last year, to get in. The ground, though, will have to be even softer than last year for him to make up the 30-lengths he was behind Tiger Roll.
I realise that Valseur Lido is as reliable as British Rail but he has dropped from 11.7 last year to 10st 2lbs this and he was lying fourth until three out and did well to plug on to finish eighth. Blaklion is another to have come down the weights, his 11st 10lbs of last year now reduced to 10st 12lbs.
With Milansbar an unlikely runner, it is pleasing that Andy Stewart is keen to have a go with Black Corton (10.11), though I suspect Paul Nicholls is not quite so keen. The race, though, as with any big race, is always the better for Bryony Frost’s participation. I personally doubt if the horse has the scope or stamina for a Grand National, though having said he is a very clever jumper of a park fence and he wouldn’t be the first to surprise around Aintree.
Others who interest me are Traffic Fluide, Royal Vacation, Mall Dini, Give Me A Copper, an appropriate winner considering Paul Nicholl’s father was a policeman, Missed Approach and because he seems incredibly well-in on his best form, Tea For Two, though the ballyhoo before the race might blow his mind.
Oh, beware, Nicky Henderson is beating himself up with how badly he has messed-up Valtor’s handicap mark by winning earlier in the season at Ascot and how it is unlikely he will run with the stopping burden of 11st 2lbs. I have the suspicion he’ll make up for not winning any of the blue riband races at Cheltenham, except of course the 2-mile Champion Chase, by winning his first Grand National. If the great man has a change of heart, and I would think Valtor is more likely to carry the double green than Bristol de Mai, I shall definitely be having a saver on him. Nicky Henderson cannot go his entire career and not win the Grand National, can he?