BETFAIR + 1965 = INTRIGUE, DELIGHT & RARE OLD FUN.

​Reporters who must present their opinions within minutes, or perhaps a few hours, of a race finishing have my sympathy. Sometimes, as with photo-finishes, first thoughts prove correct. But on the whole, I think opinions require a night’s sleep to help them marinate. This is why trainers can change track and campaign their horses completely differently to what they tell reporters directly after a race. On this occasion, though, my thoughts on Monday mirror my first reactions from Saturday.
Let’s start with the Ascot race. On seeing the two protagonists in the parade ring, I considered Cyrname fitter than Altior and though nominating the former to win during the morning of the race, I changed my opinion upon seeing the horses walking around the parade ring. I take no credit in being proved correct. Now, Cyrname might yet prove himself the better horse this season but it is my view that on Saturday the fitter horse prevailed, not necessarily the better horse.
After Cheltenham last season, I advised (as if he has the time or the inclination to visit this site) Nicky Henderson to run Altior over 3-miles at Aintree, or where he chose, so as to decide there and then the likelihood of Altior possessing the stamina for the King George. This would have allowed him to have a campaign set out in stone for this season. After Saturday, of course, he is none the wiser. Should he go for the King George or the Desert Orchid? Does he wish he had waited for the Tingle Creek and waited for Ascot in February to decide his Cheltenham plans?
One fact is certain: Cyrname is top-class and Harry Cobden has a difficult choice to make come Christmas. What does confuse me, though, is why connections are worrying themselves over Cyrname’s ability to go left-handed. I saw nothing on Saturday to make me think he wouldn’t cope around Newbury – after Boxing Day I would take Cyrname to the Denman Chase – though until they run him on an up and down course like Cheltenham, the question of will he or won’t he will never be answered.
At Haydock the result of the Betfair seems much more clear-cut. Lostintranslation is a gorgeous specimen of a steeplechaser. And more importantly, he races as if he thoroughly enjoys himself. What worries me, and it always worries me about any horse, is when the jockey says ‘I got to the front way too soon’. There is jeopardy associated with such statements. It implies that for such a horse to win everything must go right. Remember Harchibald. Not that Lostintranslation is a Harchibald. Far from it. But you wouldn’t want whatever is in front of him going to the last to fall as the implication in Robbie Power’s statement is that Lostintranslation might just pose for the cameras.
I also wouldn’t trust the bare form of the Betfair. Bristol De Mai is undoubtedly a better horse around Haydock than anywhere else and though I wouldn’t want to contradict his genius of a trainer, of all the top trainers Twiston-Davies is the most thoroughly underrated, but despite his Gold Cup effort last year Bristol De Mai does underperform more times than he sparkles. I am also of the opinion now – up until Saturday I thought him an out and out stayer and would have liked to have seen him in a Grand National – that he only just gets home over an extended 3-miles. If the Gold Cup looks ultra-competitive this season, I would seriously think about the Ryanair where he could bound along, using his quite brilliant jumping, and string out all the non-stayers and not-quite-so-goods.
Of course, of the four runners at Haydock and the three at Ascot, Lostintranslation is by far the most likely to win a Gold Cup. If not this season, then next. Or the one after that.
I cannot leave Saturday be without mentioning Frodon. And here I must contradict Paul Nicholls. Haydock was all wrong for Frodon. What he needs is a proper jumping course like Cheltenham, and tucking him in is also wrong. I’m not suggesting for one moment that Frodon would have finished anywhere other than third on Saturday, just that his magnificent jumping was of little use to him as, though neither are as extravagant as he is, both his main rivals are also exceptional jumpers.
Oh, and don’t say Frodon doesn’t get 3-miles. He stayed better than Ballyoptic on Saturday and he is Grand National bound, apparently. It is just that on Saturday at Haydock, on that ground, with the tactics employed, two horses were better than him. It doesn’t mean he wouldn’t get closer to the winner in the King George (where else can they go with him) or that connections should dismiss the possibility of having a crack at the Gold Cup.
Where I would like Frodon to go, though, as unlikely as it might seem, is the Grand National. With Tiger Roll and Native River in the race, or at least entered, he would get in with a reasonable weight and with his sure-footed jumping, and it must be said a record that suggests winning over 4-miles plus is long-odds against, he reminds me so much, though not in stature, of the mighty Crisp. Can you imagine him and Bryony dancing around Aintree? I doubt if Paul Nicholls can. We can dream, though.