​I once nicknamed Dan Skelton, privately (I did not e-mail referring to him as Dan ‘likes to be fresh’ Skelton) as criticism for keeping his best horses dressed-up in cotton-wool. Lately to seems to have tired of both the expression and the policy to the same extent ‘best fresh’ tired me at the time. Yet the ‘fresh’ angle has become, to use a loose and overused term, an epidemic over the past few seasons. Paul Nicholls, too, is fond of the term, which is perhaps where Dan Skelton got the idea.
Going to a championship race after only one or two runs is a relatively modern policy; it was not the thing in the days of Arkle or Burrough Hill Lad. Back in the golden days of the sport, if a horse went to Cheltenham with only one-run during the season, something had gone horribly wrong and all the experts would see it as an uphill battle against the odds for a horse to win a championship race with so little match practice before hand.
Marine Nationale is the latest horse to have its future career made much harder, having accrued a ‘little injury’ which will put him off games for six-weeks, meaning he not only will miss the Arkle next week but Punchestown and the rest of the season. So, he will go into his first season out of novice class with only two starts over fences. It is arguable that without the injury, which is plain bad luck, he would have taken in Cheltenham and Punchestown, giving him four starts over fences as experience. But his owner/trainer chose not to start him off this season until Christmas, when the ground would be to his advantage, and then blamed the soft ground for his horse’s poor run at Leopardstown in February.
The ’best going fresh’ policy awarded Dan Skelton no trophies and I would argue that Protektorat is as good this term after many runs than he ever was kept in his stable for most of the season. When Cheltenham is done and dusted and the connections of horses who had been ‘kept fresh’ for the big day and yet failed to land a blow will be keen to gain ‘compensation’ at Aintree and no doubt Punchestown and Sandown, too, and you can bet your bottom dollar there will be no mention of ‘best fresh’ if they should win.
Nicky Henderson often complains during November and December that there are no races – he means no easy races – for both his best horses and those inhibited by a lack of racecourse experience. Of course, he is famous for charting programmes for his horses starting with Cheltenham and working backwards, a policy that has served him well, while also laying a trap for himself when the ground is too firm for his liking in the early months of the season. That said, he has a point.
There should be races early in the season to cater for inexperienced chasers. Young horses are our future, remember, so I say sod betting turnover and lets have some races, perhaps at the smaller tracks, for the better class of horse and especially the inexperienced second-season chasers. If Constitution Hill were to rock up at Warwick, for instance, in a three-horse affair, attendance would double, with no quibbles about the race being uncompetitive. 
Something must be done within the race programme to encourage or arm-twist trainers into running their top horses earlier in the season. I have already advocated, and I do not mind repeating myself, that the Cheltenham Festival might be split into two, with Trials Day, rather a dud in my opinion, made into a two-day meeting, with the first day comprising the Festival intermediate distanced races – the Ryanair, the Turners, the novice mares hurdle, the Mares Hurdle, renamed the Champion Mares Hurdle and run over 2-miles and the Mares Chase and perhaps the Baring Bingham, and on the second-day trials for the other major races at the Festival, the Champion Hurdle, or a Ryanair equivalent for hurdlers, the Gold Cup, etc.
There needs to be a radical look at the sport, both by the B.H.A. and trainers, with a ‘for now’ policy implemented for the start of next season. Doing nothing is the same as the B.H.A.’s tinkering around the edges of the sport. The Dublin Racing Festival is a roaring success; in Britain we need to go in a similar direction.

​The weather forecast for the rest of the week, at least in the South-West, is for four straight dry days and nights. It has to be said that weather forecasts this end of the country can be pretty hit and miss, experiencing wet days when dry weather was forecast and vice-versa. One thing is for sure, if we get little rain through the coming week-end and into the start of next week, it will put the cat amongst the pigeons given the assumption Cheltenham is expected to at least start with very soft ground and that all form this season has come from ground varying from soft to Somme-like, as was the case at Doncaster last week-end.
And remember the year Desert Orchid won the Gold Cup: beautifully sunny and spring-like on the Tuesday and Wednesday with ground approaching fast, by the Thursday, Gold Cup day back then, there was a cold and snowy dawn followed in quick succession by sleet and miserable rain. Such days are never forgotten.
Cheltenham usually dries out quite quickly since they installed state-of-the-art drainage to ensure the track lost fewer meetings due to waterlogging. If spring weather comes out of hiding and the rainclouds stay away, the ground might start soft but by Friday the clerk of the course could be agonising over instigating a bit of light watering to take any sting out of the ground.
I am prepared to stick my neck out and suggest the first day will be missing its superstar. By next Tuesday, I dare say Constitution Hill will be fit and raring to go, though to turn-up with a chance of fending off State Man he will need to be raring to go by this Tuesday for N. Henderson to allow him into the horsebox travelling to Prestbury. Nicky Henderson is a great trainer, with a record, especially at the Festival, to confirm that he knows what he is doing and that his decisions are invariably the right decisions. I doubt if Constitution Hill will run, with his sights retrained on Aintree and Punchestown. So that is another race gift-wrapped for export to Closutton.
Without C.H. in the line-up, and with no other possible runner in the race, I half-expect Gordon Elliott to do an about-turn and run Irish Point in the Champion Hurdle, especially if the ground remains soft. So that will be a one-two for Ireland. For what its worth, the best bet in the Champion Hurdle is Nemean Lion each-way, if enough go to post for each-way betting, as I cannot see Kerry Lee’s horse finishing any better than third behind Irish Point and State Man.
If the ground remains soft on the Wednesday, I have an inkling that Edwardstown is going to cause a shock in the 2-mile Champion Chase, as long as they make the running with him and he jumps with his usual aplomb.
I suppose Willie Mullins will win all three novice hurdles, though which three no one can possibly know. Doubtless Willie Mullins doesn’t know either. Something tells me that Willie Mullins will suffer a few disappointments along the way this year and Lossiemouth might join El Fabiolo in that regard. The experts all say that Lossiemouth has the best form in the Mares Hurdle, yet Love Envoi was second last year to no less a superstar than Honeysuckle. Surely that is better form than anything so far achieved by Lossiemouth?
As with most people, I hope Paisley Park wins the Stayers Hurdle, though I doubt he will. I would like Dasher Drashel to win the race but doubt he will. Other than that, I have no real idea about the race, though if pushed to suggest a winner, I would go with Noble Yeats as, like Tiger Roll, he just seems capable of anything.
I like Fugatif in the Ryanair and Paul Nicholls horse (Ginny’s Delight? – name escapes me at the minute) in the middle-distance novice chase and Fact To File in the 3-mile novice chase.
Galopin Des Champs should win the Gold Cup, though having said that Shishkin would win the Gold Cup after Aintree last year, I’ll stick with him. I would like Ahoy Senor to win and Venetia Williams horse to win (again, my memory fails me – I’m 70 in April, God damn it! And I have been kicked in the head too many times). Corach Rambler for a place before winning a second Grand National.
Willie Mullins will win the Prestbury Cup, with Ireland second and Britain third with six-winners.
If I have one wish for this Cheltenham it would be for a female rider other than Rachel to win a race. Hard to imagine it happening but I shall cross my fingers anyway. It would be nice if, at least, one of the smaller trainers took home a big prize. Paul Townend to be leading rider.