aintree; 4-days out. these are my fancies.

​One of my favourite sayings is ‘ratings are bollards’, and when the phrase comes into contact with a professional, especially a Racing Post journalist, eyes are rolled and any vestige of credibility they might have for my opinions is consigned to the waste bin. Criticise God to a form expert, if you must, but never make light of the numbers that are the very essence of life to them! 
I defend my unorthodox stance by making the point that ratings are based on yesterday and in some cases a whole lot of yesterdays, the number assigned after one, perhaps out-of-character, performance. And, of course, the top-rated, even in weight-for-age and conditions races, does not always win. Ratings are a number assigned to a horse; merely opinion based on pseudo-science. The horse is not a machine, it cannot possibly run to the same level twice in a row, let alone multiple times. To repeat myself, the rating given to Cyrname after he beat Altior in a two-horse race on desperate ground was farcical.
Come Aintree and the Grand National, anyone directing their money to the bookmakers’ satchel based on ratings or indeed form, have fallen overboard and are clinging on to the leaky life-raft in complete desperation. Oh, and there are far too many examples of complete no-hopers and 33/1 and beyond winners to prove my point.
The only two factors to take into consideration when selecting bets for the Grand National are ground conditions and whether the horse stays the 4-mile 2-furlong + distance. Nothing else matters. Horses have run in the Grand National a stone or more good at the weights and with a clear ratings advantage and fallen at the first fence, not acted on the quicker or softer ground or just plain failed to see out the trip. When the ground is heavy, as it seems likely this Saturday, ground preference and the required stamina is the be-all and end-all of finding the winner. I do not even believe weight should be factored into the equation as a horse with ten-stone is not going to win if it does not stay the distance or perform to his or her best on the heavy ground.
The experts, all of whom know more about everything to do with horse racing than I do, are seemingly of the joint opinion that Nassalam has too much weight for his actual ability. I disagree. I do not necessarily believe he will win, though I may change my mind after the Foxhunters and Topham if there are few finishers, but his ability to handle ground close to abandonment should make him a certainty for everyone’s list of possible winners. Will he handle the fences, that is the only question to be asked about Nassalam?
Again, disregard ratings and recent form. The best horse in the race is Minella Indo, a Gold Cup winner, a Gold Cup runner-up. He may be light of other years and he is now eleven-years-old, with the Grand National now a race for younger legs but they will not be travelling at lightning speed this year, this year the race will resemble the old-fashioned Grand Nationals when they hunted around the first circuit and only got really serious from Bechers’ second-time round. I sincerely doubt if there will be twenty in with some sort of chance crossing the Melling Road for the last time. There might not be twenty going out on the second circuit.
My modus operandi for finding the winner of the Grand National relies on instinct, the inner voice that at some point during the season quietly informs me ‘that horse looks a likely Grand National horse’. It is not a reliable system for finding the winner but when it comes to the Grand National, tell me a system that is reliable?
Galia Des Liteaux was the recipient of this spectral tip after she ran at Warwick in the Classic Chase. For form-buffs, the race has worked out well with My Silver Lining (?) keeping the form looking respectable when second at Haydock behind Yeah Man, the tip of many for the Irish National at Fairyhouse last week. Yes, I was tipping-up, if only to myself, a Dan Skelton Grand National winner back in February and four-days out she remains my number one for Saturday. Of course, all might change. But at the moment, my three for the great race, which it remains even if I have constantly bemoaned the latest sheaf of pointless alterations, are Galia Des Liteaux, Minella Indo, Nassalam, and if forced to make a fourth choice it would be between Gordon Elliott’s Delta Work and Coko Beach.
The Grand National this year will not be for the faint-hearted - equine or human!