2020 champion hurdle: my thoughts.

​On February 1st at the Dublin Racing Festival, Petit Mouchoir finished 1-length third behind Honeysuckle and Darver Star, giving the winner 7Ibs, with Supasundae and Sharjah in behind. On December 19th at Leopardstown, Petit Mouchoir was beaten 3 and a bit lengths by Sharjah, with Coeur Sublime 8-lengths and more third. On November 19th at Punchestown, Petit Mouchoir was second to Saldier, beaten one and a half lengths.
Am I attempting to make a case for Petit Mouchoir winning the Champion Hurdle? No. I am attempting to convince the reader, and perhaps myself, that the race this year is up for grabs and that Henry de Bromhead’s horse has every chance of finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th. He is, after all, not exactly a winning machine, even if he has accumulated over 300,000 in prize-money during his career.
The betting suggests that form should not be relied upon. Sharjah, who Petit Mouchoir has finished in front of twice this season, is currently around about 9/1 to win the race. Darver Star is 10/1. Coeur Sublime is 12/1. Supasundae is also 12/1. Honeysuckle would have been favourite if her connections had the balls to run her.
Petit Mouchoir is any price you care to ask for. 33/1 and others in a race where some bookies will pay out on the first five.
If you are one of the dreamers who thought Honeysuckle would have dotted up if given the chance, I suggest you ask yourself this: would she have won if she was not receiving the sex allowance (I wish they would change that phrase to the gender allowance)? Mind you, without the 7Ib allowance I doubt if she would have run. I remind you, and I accept Darver Star might be improving, even if he is an eight-year-old, that he is one of the favourites and Petit Mouchoir, beaten only half-a-length by him, is any price you like. The value, as Mark Chapman likes to tell us, is with Henry de Bromhead’s horse, not with any of the above-mentioned.
Who will win the 2020 Champion Hurdle, you ask? No idea. To my way of thinking, not one horse in the race has the form of a credible Champion Hurdle winner and that includes the favourite, Epatante. You have to be real optimist if you think beating the gallant old stick Silver Streak 5-lengths at Kempton represents the required level of form to win even a moderate, if competitive, Champion Hurdle. Having said that, the same opinion can be expressed about all 17 of the intended runners. If you were to put a gun to my head, I would suggest Pentland Hills as the possible winner on the basis that he has run respectfully all season and as a five-year-old has the potential for improvement.
My tentative 1,2,3, would be: Pentland Hills, Coeur Sublime, Petit Mouchoir, with the latter by far the best value.
Although I doubt Rachael Blackmore will win any of the major Grade 1’s this year, I have an inkling she might win the opener on Captain Guinness, as appropriate a winner as Cheltenham could throw-up. I like Cash Back in the Arkle. Big River in the Ultima. de Plotting Shed in the novice handicap and Lord du Mesnil in the messed-about National Hunt Chase.
Oh, and I have not forgotten the intriguing Mares Hurdle. To my mind this race is an abomination, at least as the conditions presently stand, as mares of the quality of Benie Des Dieux and Honeysuckle should not be allowed into the race. It is not a championship race, even if it is a Grade 1 and should be restricted to mares with ratings below whatever the ratings achieved by the big two. Either of the favourites could turn-out to be superstars of the sport, if they are not already, and here they are fighting it out for a race won last year by Roksana, as nice a mare as she is. This race seriously undermines the true championship races at the Festival and needs to be reconsidered. There is a need in the calendar for a championship hurdle for mares over 2 and 3-miles but not at the Festival. I would suggest one such race could be staged at Cheltenham in December and the other at the Dublin Racing Festival, thereby spreading the quality races around a bit and not allowing the big yards the opportunity to devalue the championship races by running their best horses in what by comparison to the Champion and Stayers Hurdle is an egg and spoon affair.
Benie Des Dieux will win, by the way, Kenny Alexander will be left bemoaning ‘only if’! and Ricci Rich will be as happy as if he has won a race that in the pantheon of the sport actually matters, which it doesn’t, sadly, even if, this year, it may be the race of the meeting.