2008-2023 GRAND NATIONALS. THIS IS WHAT i HAVE LEARNED.

​Yesterday afternoon, while the rain prevented me from taking my daily constitutional, I exercised my mind in some off-the-cuff research into the Grand National from 2008 to 2023. I wanted to gain a dispassionate insight into whether the alterations to the Grand National since 2012 has made the race safer for horse and rider and if jockeys were riding from the start to Bechers any differently, to prove my belief that there is more scrimmaging at the first three fences than in the past.
My conclusions are not based on science and others might take a different point of view as the approach of jockeys seems to remain fairly similar to post-2012. What I can say with assurance is that not one of the alterations instigated to ensure a safer race have proved effective and in fact the ‘easier’ Aintree try to make the race, the faster has become the speed of the race, a danger to life and limb in itself.
The one change to this year’s race that will perhaps might prove beneficial is starting the race mid-afternoon rather than at 5-15 pm to appease the national media. It was always a pointless exercise to water the course during the night when the sun had all-day to dry it out. Slow ground makes the race safer, even if fewer horses finish the race, than fast ground. Also, as Ruby Walsh pointed out in 2012 when the Aintree fences had the sting taken out of them, to make the race run at a slower pace the fences need to be higher rather lower. I was saddened to read, now that Ruby is employed in television, that he has retreated to the other side and congratulated Aintree for nullifying the appeal and history of the race even further.
I chose 2008 at random. I thought if I went back to the days when the B.B.C. televised the race and when there were fewer cameras used, I wouldn’t get a fair reflection and if I went back to pre-1960, when the fences were upright and black, it would be looking at a completely different race.
The years 2008, 2009, the whole width of the course was used, though in 2009 after the second fence the field became compressed between middle and inner. In 2010 the field were still spread right across the course at Bechers. In 2011 the field came together in middle-to-inner after the third fence, and again in 2012, though by Bechers they had again fanned out to use almost the whole width of the course. In 2013 the whole width of the course was used until going to the fifth fence. In 2014, two-years after changes were made in light of the accidents that caused two equine deaths in 2012, the field raced middle-to-inner from the second fence.
In 2015 the field were pretty well spread to Bechers, though at the fourth the jockeys on the outer had come towards the middle of the course. 2016 saw the field occupying the middle-to-inner from the second fence to Bechers. In 2017, for whatever reason, the field were spread right across the course until Bechers when they were middle-to-inner which resulted in several fallers.
In 2018, the outer was unused, with the whole field going to the second fence in the middle-or-inner of the course. In 2019, the width of the course was used all the way to Bechers which resulted in no fallers. In 2021, we were back to the middle-to-inner all the way to Bechers and again in 2022. In 2023, they were again largely on the ground between middle-to-inner, though a few did stay wide.
I did not want to concentrate on fallers or why they fell. In steeplechasing, there will always be fallers; it is inevitable and if horses and jockeys parting company were to be eliminated, like it or not, a good deal of the excitement would be lost, as well as 99% of the jeopardy. Some horses were either brought-down or baulked by jockeys lying on the ground after being unseated, a circumstance that is pure happenstance. 
I wanted to discover substantive prove that fallers, and fatalities, if I am honest, at the first three-fences, are as a result of scrimmaging due to jockeys starting on the outside drifting towards the middle and compressing the field. I did not find overwhelming evidence to support my theory that a draw be made to ensure 20-jockeys line up on the inside-to-middle and the other 20 (I remain committed to 40-runners, though this season 17 and 17 would be equally appropriate) from middle-to-outer, with all jockeys instructed to keep a straight line until after the third-fence.
In fact, the evidence provided by the race in 2019 has emboldened me to think jockeys should remain on a straight line until after Bechers, which with Bechers now so neutered there is no advantage or disadvantage for it to be jumped inner, middle or outer, might be the best and perhaps only method of making the race safer and a better exhibition of equine athleticism and jockey skill.
If Aintree are to make alterations on a regular basis due to outside criticism and inner nervousness, the race in ten-years will be as different to what it was in 1960 as 1960 was different in comparison to 1860. I do not want to see stone walls and plough but I do want to have a Grand National that is representative of the history of the Grand National. Once the sense of awe has gone, when jockeys approach the race as just another long-distance chase, the magic too will disappear and Aintree’s present custodian, Suleka Varma, will have left a legacy of despair and treachery in her wake. Personally, I do not believe she understands what the Grand National is all about. It is not simply a cash-cow for the industry and Aintree, it is a precious jewel in the crown of British racing.