FOUR-DAYS OF CROSSED-FINGERS.

The thing is this - I am disappointed by the ground at Cheltenham. Last week, given the weather symbols, I could not see the ground being anything other than softish not goodish. Well, you can throw the form-book out the window as it is not about horses that can handle soft ground but those who will improve for goodish ground.

What I can predict with great confidence is this: the Supreme wil be won by one of the following; El Cairos, Leader D'Allier, Mighty Park, Mydaddypaddy, Old Park Star, Sober Glory or Talk The Talk. After long consideration I  have decided to remain loyal to Sober Glory, though I suspect the ground has gone against him. In one of many YouTube videos I have watched over the past two weeks the horse that knocked my eye out was Mydaddypaddy, he looked nothing short of magnificent. What of Mighty Park, the next superstar-apparent? It is all very well dominating a large field of ordinary maidens at Fairyhouse and another thing entirely when there are 11-opponents all of whom have won races, some of graded standard. I suspect he will either win 10-lengths on the bridle or bomb-out. Which ever horse you back, Mighty Park is the one to fear. El Cairos and Talk The Talk may be let down by their dodgy jumping, while Leader D'Allier and Old Park Star may have done their winning for the season and will rebuild their star reputations over fences next season.

As in Ireland when Closutton horses are given far too much respect by their rivals, allowed uncontested leads, with trainers of the lesser runners more concerned about future handicap marks than trying to spring a surprise, I suspect Kopek Des Bordes will either be allowed to bowl along in front or given a lead by Kargese. I hope Dylan Johnston will be proactive and try to use Steel Ally's reliable jumping and to at least put it up to the Closutton horses before Nico gets Lulamba involved. Whether he wins is another matter but the value bet in the Arkle is Steel Ally. My quandary here is that when Kargese was second at the D.R.F. instinct told me she would gain her revenge on Romeo Coolio in the Arkle, the same instinct that assured me Steel Ally would win the Arkle after his Kingmaker success.

My best advice pertaining to the Fred Winter is to ignore it as a betting medium. It is too hard a puzzle for mere enthusiasts to meddle with, so leave it to the experts to make a fool of themselves over it. The question I want answering here is this: why honour the memory of Fred Winter by naming the race after him and then in race-cards demote his name to 'registered as', with McCoy Constructors given star billing. Again, why not, the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, sponsored by (or presented by) the McCoy Construction Company?

That the Irish are an optimistic people is proved annually at Cheltenham as they valliantly try to wrest the Ultima away from the British. With Handstands, Resplendent Grey and Hylands, to name but three, I would suggest ignoring the Irish runners altogether. Knight of Allen should be respected as 10st 2Ibs gives him every chance of causing an upset.

Anzadam will have a tongue-tie; Lossiemouth will have cheek-pieces and Poniros is coming to hand nicely. Fear Willie! Alexei and Workahead are not good enough. Tutti Quanti might be good enough, though he might want softer ground. That leaves Brighterdaysahead who has bombed out twice before at Cheltenham, The New Lion who might be the new Constitution Hill in that he too takes chances with the hurdles and Miss Reliable, Golden Ace. If that tongue-tie works the oracle .....

Downmexicoway for the Plate.

I chewed the bone of contention for many many years that the National Hunt Chase should not be restricted to amateurs and the first two renewals of the race since the change was made has proved me correct. I will take all of your blessings with the humility befitting a man who is right yet again. Though not my banker of the week, that will be Panic Attack in the Mares Chase, I am very strong on Grand Geste to give Joel Parkinson his first Festival winner, and not the last, I predict.

Finally, perhaps the safest tip anyone will provide today, Gavin Sheehan is at Sedgefield today which suggests to me that Rebel Tribesman in the third race must be worth his journey. Taps nose and winks the knowing eye in the almost certain knowledge that I will miss the target in every race at Cheltenham and with fingers-crossed suggest Rebel Tribesman might just restore my straffed credibility.