CLIMATE CHANGE AND HORSE RACING.

I am forever, it might seem, though not in reality, taking issue with the thoughts of Craig Thake. Recently, we clashed with the verocity of two dancing Morris men with their bells and hankerchiefs over the use of the whip. Today, in the 'Another View' column of The Racing Post, he proposes that due to climate change horse racing should stage less racing on grass during the summer months and far more racing on artificial surfaces. Obviously, with my fear that all-weather will eventually become all-consuming, I take issue with this prospect.

Firstly, and for those appalled by what comes next, I suggest a deep dive into climate prediction since the 1940's, predictions for future climate change over the past 70-years have all proved incorrect. A new ice-age has not come upon the planet, Peterborough remains a respectable distance from the sea, with no sea port up for planning consent, and though it is claimed by the secretary-general of the U.N. that the seas are boiling, anyone jumping into either the Irish or North Sea during three out of the four seasons remains likely to experience cold water shock and not third-degree scolding.

This summer's drought is the second I have experienced in my lifetime. In 1976 the reservoirs ran dry, the water table plunged (mostly due to below average rainfall the previous year) and bowsers were used to supply water to towns and villages. Yet racing in this country carried on regardless and, with the 1970's being 'another country', carried on without horses needing to be showered with buckets of cold water after a race, cooling fans or the daily use of irrigation at racecourses.  The National Hunt course at Ascot was the same colour as it is now, with little prospect of jump racing resuming at the royal course anytime before Christmas. Yet though the ground was firm and with few runners,, by the time of the first scheduled jumps meeting, the grass was green again.

1976 impacted upon my memory like no other in the 72-years of my existence. I genuinely thought that the end of the world was nigh. Since 1976, I changed from being, as we all are, profligate with water, to someone who will curse myself if I should spill water on the ground when watering the plants.

If, as Craig Thake suggests, British racing mirrors U.S. racing through the summer months and goes all-out all-weather, would he propose we lose some of our summer festival meetings to artificial surfaces? York's Ebor meeting transferring to Newcastle. Glorious Goodwood transferring to leafy Lingfield or Kempton Park if it should survive the destruction of the J.C.B.'s? Surely Craig cannot be suggesting that only the likes of Redcar, Nottingham or Salisbury, should be sacrificed to the all-weather and not the racecourses that come under the banner of 'premier racecourses'?

And, on the off-chance that the present climate prediction should prove correct, then what happens to the summer jumping programme? Should we re-visit all-weather jumping? It was a disaster around the time of the first all-weather racecourses, though since then synthetic surfaces have changed and might prove less dangerous. Or do we return to the long summer recess with the new season starting in August at Market Rasen and Newton Abbot?

I dislike all-weather surfaces, and I have an unproven theory (hypothesis?) that synthetic training surfaces when dry and dusty could be the cause of the increase (at least I believe it is an increase) in respiratory conditions. Yet I accept that for the reason they were first introduced - to guarantee racing can continue during periods of snow, frost and flood - that they play an important role for the industry. I believe, though, that we have too many all-weather tracks and would like to see two or even perhaps three return to grass surfaces.

If, again on the off-chance the seas do begin to boil, our winters become drier, (or will winter become known as our rainy-season?) the flat turf season could extend past it's present end-date of November; perhaps we could have turf flat racing throughout the winter and into the spring. But the B.H.A. cannot be expected to radically plan for a time in the future or near-future on the word of climate scientists when the profession down the decades have the form of 30-rated selling platers. 

Oh, and that oft-made quote that all climate scientists around the world agree with the fact of global warming? A dedicated student in the field sent an e-mail to over 300 scientists involved in climate science asking if they had faith in the latest climate predictions. Only around 80 replied, of which over 90% said they were believers. Of the other 220 we can only guess at where they stood, and stand, on a subject where only believers are awarded grants to finance their research.

So, Craig, let's hold fire on radical change for a few more years as 2027, predicted by some as the beginning of the end for life on Earth, might just provide record rainfall, plummeting summer temperatures or, well, who knows what when it comes to the vagaries of the weather-gods.