AND THE WINNER IS ....

Let's be clear, my history of either finding the winner of the National or coming across a long-priced outsider that out-runs its odds is as good as any leading tipster you care to name. The Tiger Rolls years, I admit, were not good to me, and I am yet to get a grip on the health and safety years of the historic race. But overall, I am not as bad at tipping horses for Aintree as I am in general.

Where I struggle with the modern race is that there is no emphasis on jumping ability. Nor can anyone look for a 'National type', a horse who will improve a stone simply through having the technique for jumping fences that fall apart when brushed through or having the abundance of stamina required in the final mile of the race. In the past, even the near past, I favoured looking for a horse that seemed certain to jump round as National history is replete with gallant horses that year after year finished the race, occasionally finishing in the top four.

I always used to refuse to have anything to do with horses at the top of the market, especially if all their form was around park courses like Ascot or Kempton. Since the race was dramatically altered to the point where it is more stylised on what went before than a replica of went before, form at any racecourse is now equal to Aintree form, with the exception being horses that have shown their best form on undulating racecourses. The day of the apparent forlorn hope is consigned to history, which to me, a romantic at heart, is sad.

Anyway, after painstaking research and study, I am prepared to give you a laugh and reveal the horses I believe have the best chance of either winning or running a place this afternoon. One caveat, my preferance this year is for horses inconvenienced by soft or heavy ground as I believe though the ground might be softer than on Thursday and Friday, it will not become attritional. If Aintree should get a downpour then all my calculations will be thrown to the wind and Sara Bradstock will be one happy bunny. It might be worth having a couple quid each-way on at 80/1 on Mr.Vango just in case. To me, though, on any ground short of Somme-like conditions will render him too slow for a modern National.

Beauport at 100/1 will give his backers a good run for their money. Went well for a long time last year but didn't get home. If there was a genuine reason for fading from Valentines other than a lack of stamina, he might be in the mix this year.

Gerri Colombe at 25/1. Classy and though they say they never come back, last time out he showed clear signs he was on the way back and Jack Kennedy has chosen him over the other Gordon Elliott runners, which is a tip in itself.

Grangeclare West, 10/1, obviously must be in with a chance, though he looks the type of horse who always has a mistake in him and Paul Townend, who is a fair judge when it comes to making a difficult choice, has gone elsewhere.

Haiti Coulours, 20/1. This horse is guaranteed to stay and as long as he is the horse that won the Irish and Welsh Nationals and not the one who bombed out in the Betfair and disappointed in the Gold Cup, he will put up a bold show. He has 'National' written all over him. But there is in my mind a ? hanging over him.

I Am Maximus, 15/2 favourite.  Enough said. Weight beating him is the hope I cling to.

Imperial Saint, 40/1. One of the few 'no forlorn types' in this year's race, I believe. Consistent, jumps and stays. \good young jockey on his back. Would not put anyone off who fancies a flutter on him.

Iroko, 16/1. While his stable companion may be a dodge-pot, as some people describe horses that find it difficult to win yet are placed on virtually every run, Iroko is as steady as a die. He might be the type to run in five Nationals and be placed in all of them. He might even win one of them. Something tells me it will not be this year, though.

Johnnywho, 10/1. No value at those odds and not in my eyes certain to stay. On the other hand the distance might take him from steady handicapper to superstar stayer. At 25/1 he would be good value, yet aside from I Am Maximus, he is the shortest priced of the McManus runners, shorter than Iroko and Jagwar, both of which have better overall form.

Marble Sands 50/1. Should be 100/1 but that said my best 'forlorn hope' in the field. Jumps, stays, would not want the ground to go truly soft, in my opinion, but worth a punt to finish in the first four. I would be as amazed as anyone should he win, though less amazed if he were a gallant third or fourth.

Oscar's Brother, 18/1. Though technically a novice, he has far more experience than, say, Noble Yeats, but do we want novices winning the race? If he does win, though, he might dominate the race over the next few years. My sentiments are mixed with this horse. I like him. I think he might have the class and the right weight to win. It is up to you. I would not be surprised to see him in the winners' enclosure. I just don't want to have novices running and winning Nationals.

Finally, Panic Attack. 15/2 is far too short a price. At 12/1 and longer she was value. But if she wins, 15/2 will seem great odds. No mare has won since 1951, which means sooner or later a mare will win. When she won the Paddy Power H'cap at the beginning of the season, I would not have taken 100/1 about her. When she won the old Hennessey, I thought she looked a real National prospect. The Skeltons have won too much already this season to think they could add a National to their tally, yet I keep coming back to the weight advantage she has over those at the top of the market. I Am Maximus on 11st 12Ibs, Grangeclare West on 11st 10Ibs, Iroko 11st 1Ibs. Panic Attack has 10st 5Ibs.

My first four are: Panic Attack, Gerri Colombe, I Am Maximus, Marble Sands. Fingers and toes crossed for every horse and jockey taking part to have a safe race, which is far more important than you or I having a winning ticket in our wallets.