(This is part 1, with part 2, if I remember, on Thursday)
The aspect of horse racing that should be known to all is it is a sport not a science. Horses can improve for soft ground, for firm ground, for a change in distance or tactics, for a different jockey, for climatic conditions (some horses hate the rain, for instance) and for a faster or slower pace. The more times a horse runs, the easier it is to get a handle on individual preferences. For instance, Inthepocket, in today’s Supreme Hurdle, should, according to the form-book, have little chance of reversing form after a 9-length defeat to Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival. Yet Leopardstown and Cheltenham have little in common except they are both left-handed tracks. Il Etait Temps may not travel down the hill as well as Inthepocket or finish as strongly up the hill to the winning post. And to add to the dilemma the Mullins stable jockey, Paul Townend, has chosen to stick with Facile Vega who was beaten 20-lenths or more by both horses in that race. Horse racing is about opinions, not science. Here, briefly, are my opinions. I have a fancy for Doctor Bravo in the Supreme, though my eye keeps being drawn to Strong Leader. I cannot get away from Jonbon in the Arkle as I am uncertain of El Fabiolo’s jumping. The Ultima is tricky, as you would expect from a Cheltenham handicap. Three of my Grand National hopefuls run in this, though on this occasion I do not fancy Happygolucky, Remastered (ridden by David Noonan, perhaps a clue as to who will replace Tom Scudamore as David Pipe’s stable jockey next season) or The Big Breakaway. My fancy is Oscar Elite, with Glamorgan Duke as a big odds each-way shout. Constitution Hill will win the Champion Hurdle The Mares Hurdle has no right to be more competitive than the Champion Hurdle and the conditions of the race must be changed to prevent this disagreeable state of affairs to ever happen again. My heart wants Honeysuckle to win, though my head suggests Marie’s Rock. The Boodles has oodles of horses with chances. Bad might turn out to be better than good and the booking of Rachel Blackmore could be significant and the bottom weight Romancero Le Dun might be thrown in off 10-st 3-Ilbs but I will side with Sir Allen and Danny Mullins. Gaillard Du Mesnil should be a shoo-in in the National Hunt chase but a few times, even though he is yet to beat anything of this class, I have been impressed by Coolvalla and I’ll stick with him to bring Britain 5-2 in the lead over the old enemy, Willie Mullins. Obviously, making tips for Wednesday requires a wee bit of guesswork as declarations are not made until mid-day today, Tuesday. So that’s my excuse for any lamentable suggestions. In my opinion the Ballymore is the better quality race for novices at the meeting. I want Hermes Allen to win but all season I have been mightily impressed with Gaelic Warrior and I will stay with him The 3-mile novice chase looks a match between Gerri Colombe and Thyme Hill, with the former edging it for me. The Coral Cup is a nightmare for amateur tipsters like myself. I literally haven’t a clue and will suggest Scaramanga for Willie Mullins even though he hasn’t seen a racecourse for 326-days, a mere trifle for someone of the genius of Mullins. The 2-Mile Champion Chase is, in my opinion, the race of the meeting, with 5 perfectly predictable winners. After the Tingle Creek my instincts shouted out at me that Edwardstone would win the Champion Chase. After the Clarence House I edged over to Editeur Du Gite and remain in his camp, though this may be a case of wanting the Moores to have another big race winner sideswiping common-sense. I like the change of pace the Glenfarclas brings to the Festival; a chance to unwind a little, to take a breather and watch a race of novelty and expertise. Gin On Lime interests me as I have a fancy for her in the Grand National. Whether she will run here is doubtful, I suspect, as she is a good ground horse, whereas Delta Work will love the ground and I expect him to out-stay his stable companion Galvin. Snow Leopardess is the only possible place hope for Britain. I suggest Shakem Up’arry for the Grand Annual, more in hope than expectation, I admit. And any of the eleven possible Closutton runners in the Bumper? This is such a competitive affair I will go for Fact to File to come home in front of Favour and Fortune and A Dream To Share. 5-2 to Ireland. 7-7 each overall.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
GOING TO THE LAST
A HORSE RACING RELATED COLLECTION OF SHORT STORIES E-BOOK £1.99 PAPERBACK. £8.99 CLICK HERE Archives
November 2024
Categories |